True economic prosperity for the majority comes from wage growth, which leads to inflation and higher rates. These factors are poison for the long-duration assets and leveraged models that Wall Street depends on, creating a direct conflict of interest in policymaking.

The economic theory that rising asset values boost spending is flawed. It ignores 'mental accounting'—people treat different types of wealth differently. A rise in home value leads to almost zero increased spending, while a cash windfall from a stock sale or lottery win is spent freely. The source of wealth dictates its use.

The resilience of consumer spending, despite weak employment growth, is driven by affluent consumers liquidating assets or drawing down cash. This balance sheet-driven consumption explains why traditional income-based models (like savings rates) are failing to predict a slowdown.

Massive investment requires issuing assets (bonds, equity), creating supply pressure that pushes prices down. The resulting spending stimulates the real economy, but this happens with a lag. Investors are in the painful phase where supply is high but growth benefits haven't yet materialized.

While high-income spending remains stable, the next wave of consumption growth will stem from a recovery in the middle-income segment. This rebound will be driven by stabilizing factors like reduced policy uncertainty and neutral monetary policy, not a major labor market acceleration.

The "K-shaped" economy presents a dilemma. The Fed will prioritize easing for the struggling lower end (housing, affordability), even if it risks overheating the asset-owning upper end. Political pressure from the masses outweighs concerns about asset bubbles, guiding policy toward the path of least political resistance.

U.S. economic policy is no longer aimed at broad prosperity but at ensuring the S&P 500 index continues to rise. This singular focus creates negative side effects, like suffering for the majority of the population who rely on wage growth rather than asset appreciation.

Increasing the money supply doesn't lift all prices uniformly. It flows into specific sectors like finance or real estate first, creating asset bubbles and exacerbating wealth inequality, as those closest to the "money spigot" benefit before wages catch up.

Higher interest rates on government debt are creating a significant income stream for seniors, who hold a large amount of cash-like assets. This cohort's increased spending power—either for themselves or passed down to younger generations—acts as a counterintuitive fiscal stimulus, offsetting the intended tightening effects of the Fed's policy.