We naturally gravitate toward practicing what we're already good at. Stanley McChrystal warns this creates gaping vulnerabilities. True resilience comes from identifying and systematically strengthening the weakest parts of an organization's risk response system.

Under pressure, organizations tend to shut down external feedback loops for self-protection. This creates a "self-referencing" system that can't adapt. Effective leadership maintains permeable boundaries, allowing feedback to flow in and out for recalibration, which enables smarter, systems-aware decisions.

Leaders often conflate seeing a risk with understanding it. In 2020, officials saw COVID-19 but didn't understand its airborne spread. Conversely, society understands the risk of drunk driving but fails to see it most of the time. Truly managing risk requires addressing both visibility and comprehension.

Instead of blaming individuals for errors, leaders should analyze the systemic conditions that led to the mistake. Error isn't random; it's a patterned outcome. This shifts the focus from 'fixing people' to designing more resilient systems.

General McChrystal warns that consistently circumventing proper channels for short-term gains, like soldiers stealing parts instead of using the supply chain, causes those systems to atrophy. This ensures they will fail when a large-scale crisis hits and they are needed most.

Highly skilled teams will repeatedly fail if the surrounding organizational structure—decision-making, governance, silos—is dysfunctional. The root cause of failure is often not the team's ability but systemic issues that must be addressed at a leadership level for anyone to succeed.

Beyond 'fight or flight,' Mercy Corps' CEO identifies a third, more dangerous crisis response: 'freeze.' She argues that holding still or failing to adapt guarantees a slow demise. For leaders facing existential threats, radical rethinking is the only viable path forward, even when the future is uncertain.

During crises, Blankfein’s team ignored predictions about likely outcomes. Instead, they focused exclusively on identifying all possible (even low-probability) negative events and creating contingency plans. This readiness allowed them to react faster than competitors when a tail risk event actually occurred.

To prepare for low-probability, high-impact events, leaders should resist the immediate urge to create action plans. Instead, they must first creatively explore "good, bad, and ugly" scenarios without the pressure for an immediate, concrete solution. This exploration phase is crucial for resilience.