A software company bought at a 13x EBITDA multiple can see its first-lien LTV jump from 45% to 73% and its equity value wiped out by 85% if its enterprise value multiple simply re-rates down to 8x. This looming valuation crisis threatens many LBOs financed at the market's peak.

Even with identical acquisition multiples, the higher cost of debt financing today means a new LBO generates an excess return over cash that is 4.5 percentage points lower than it would have during the zero-interest-rate period (ZERP). This presents a major structural challenge for future private equity performance.

The old PE model is obsolete in software. With high revenue multiples (7-8x) and low leverage (30% debt), firms must genuinely grow the business to generate returns. About two-thirds of value now comes from selling a larger, more profitable company (terminal value), not from stripping cash flow.

The era of 'growth at all costs,' funded by cheap VC money, is over. The market now demands that startups operate as 'earnings businesses' with a clear path to profitability. This fundamental shift forces founders to prioritize operating efficiency and sustainable growth over pure market capture.

The underwriting quality in private credit is declining. Key red flags include lenders accepting "EBITDA add-backs"—projected, unrealized earnings improvements—and allowing borrowers to retain more proceeds from asset sales. These terms signal a shift in negotiating power to borrowers and rising risk.

The M&A market has shifted. Buyers no longer accept simple revenue aggregation. They now conduct deep diligence to disaggregate organic from inorganic growth, demanding proof of a sustainable growth engine beyond just making acquisitions.

The era of generating returns through leverage and multiple expansion is over. Future success in PE will come from driving revenue growth, entering at lower multiples, and adding operational expertise, particularly in the fragmented middle market where these opportunities are more prevalent.

WeWork created "Community Adjusted EBITDA," a metric that conveniently excluded core costs like rent and salaries. This farcical KPI incentivized top-line growth at any cost, masking massive unprofitability and ultimately destroying shareholder value. Be wary of overly creative accounting.

The use of "adjusted EBITDA," which includes unrealized synergies and cost savings, has doubled over a decade. This practice makes leverage appear lower than it is on a reported basis, concealing significant risk. An S&P study confirmed these adjustments are rarely realized, particularly in the single-B space.