The AI industry is hitting data limits for training massive, general-purpose models. The next wave of progress will likely come from creating highly specialized models for specific domains, similar to DeepMind's AlphaFold, which can achieve superhuman performance on narrow tasks.

AI development history shows that complex, hard-coded approaches to intelligence are often superseded by more general, simpler methods that scale more effectively. This "bitter lesson" warns against building brittle solutions that will become obsolete as core models improve.

The history of AI, such as the 2012 AlexNet breakthrough, demonstrates that scaling compute and data on simpler, older algorithms often yields greater advances than designing intricate new ones. This "bitter lesson" suggests prioritizing scalability over algorithmic complexity for future progress.

The "bitter lesson" in AI research posits that methods leveraging massive computation scale better and ultimately win out over approaches that rely on human-designed domain knowledge or clever shortcuts, favoring scale over ingenuity.

Broad improvements in AI's general reasoning are plateauing due to data saturation. The next major phase is vertical specialization. We will see an "explosion" of different models becoming superhuman in highly specific domains like chemistry or physics, rather than one model getting slightly better at everything.

The era of guaranteed progress by simply scaling up compute and data for pre-training is ending. With massive compute now available, the bottleneck is no longer resources but fundamental ideas. The AI field is re-entering a period where novel research, not just scaling existing recipes, will drive the next breakthroughs.

Contrary to the "bitter lesson" narrative that scale is all that matters, novel ideas remain a critical driver of AI progress. The field is not yet experiencing diminishing returns on new concepts; game-changing ideas are still being invented and are essential for making scaling effective in the first place.

The next leap in AI will come from integrating general-purpose reasoning models with specialized models for domains like biology or robotics. This fusion, creating a "single unified intelligence" across modalities, is the base case for achieving superintelligence.

Current AI development focuses on "vertical scaling" (bigger models), akin to early humans getting smarter individually. The real breakthrough, like humanity's invention of language, will come from "horizontal scaling"—enabling AI agents to share knowledge and collaborate.