According to long-time China analyst James Kynge, a recent U.S.-China summit marked a historic reversal. For the first time, the U.S. president was in a position of asking for concessions, not demanding them, driven by China's leverage over critical mineral exports essential for U.S. tech and weapons.

By using its most powerful trade weapon—control over rare earths—early in its conflict, China incentivized the world to develop alternative supplies. This move provides short-term gains but likely diminishes China's long-term strategic leverage.

The shift to a less adversarial China policy may be a strategic maneuver to avoid supply chain disruptions. The U.S. appears to be biding its time—likely for 5+ years—to wean itself off dependence on Chinese rare earth minerals, which are critical for both industry and defense manufacturing.

China is leveraging its 90% control over rare earth processing not just against the US, but globally. By requiring licenses from any company worldwide, it creates a chokehold on high-tech manufacturing and establishes a new template for economic coercion.

China demonstrated its significant leverage over the U.S. by quickly pressuring the Trump administration through a partial embargo on rare earth metals. This showcased a powerful non-tariff weapon rooted in its control of critical mineral supply chains, which are also vital for defense applications.

While headlines focus on advanced chips, China’s real leverage comes from its strategic control over less glamorous but essential upstream inputs like rare earths and magnets. It has even banned the export of magnet-making technology, creating critical, hard-to-solve bottlenecks for Western manufacturing.

A recent showdown demonstrated China's new economic leverage. After the U.S. imposed heavy tariffs, China retaliated by threatening to restrict exports of critical minerals essential for U.S. tech and defense industries. This move successfully forced the White House to back down and significantly lower the tariffs, showcasing a shift in economic power.

China's dominance in rare earth and critical mineral supplies, which are vital for US weapons and tech manufacturing, gave President Xi a strategic advantage over President Trump in their recent summit. This economic chokehold shifted the traditional power dynamic between the two nations.

China is no longer just mirroring US trade restrictions in a tit-for-tat manner. It is now offensively mapping its own supply chains to identify and control global choke points, proactively weaponizing its dominance in critical materials and technologies to exert geopolitical pressure.