A simple framework to evaluate a VC's skill is the four 'D's'. They need proprietary Deal Flow, the ability to make good Decisions (initial investment), the conviction to Double Down on winners, and the discipline to generate Distributions (returns) for LPs.

Horowitz claims a VC firm's ability to win access to the most sought-after deals is more critical to success than its genius for picking winners. A strong brand that ensures access to competitive rounds can generate top-tier returns even with average picking ability.

Contrary to the popular debate, venture is primarily an access game, not a picking game. The core challenge is building a system to see a high volume of exceptional founders and then win the allocation. Once that is achieved, selecting which ones to back becomes straightforward.

For a megafund like Andreessen Horowitz's $15B vehicle to generate venture returns, it must consistently capture a significant market share—roughly 10%—of all successful outcomes. This transforms their investment strategy into a game of market share acquisition across all stages, not just picking individual winners.

Anish Acharya clarifies a16z's intense operational standard: GPs are expected to see every single deal within their sector and win every deal they decide to go after. The firm does not permit a belief in luck or accept missing a company as an excuse, framing their work as a deterministic process of comprehensive coverage.

A16z's strategy is likened to the Soviet Red Army: overwhelming the battlefield with sheer numbers. Their massive fund and broad platform create a "wall of news" and allow them to march capital forward relentlessly. This illustrates the venture capital maxim that "quantity has a quality all its own."

Horowitz claims that winning competitive deals is a much larger component of VC success than simply picking the right companies. A firm with a brand and platform that can consistently win the best deals will automatically generate top-tier returns, even with average picking ability. This attracts the best pickers over time, creating a flywheel.

Anish Acharya reveals a core tenet of a16z's early-stage strategy: price is flexible, but ownership is not. For deals below a certain threshold (~$100M valuation), the exact price matters less than securing the ownership percentage required to deploy their extensive operational support model.

Ben Horowitz argues that waiting a decade for fund outcomes is too slow. Instead, a16z judges investors "at the point of attack"—how good they are at finding and winning deals with exceptional founders. This focuses on decision quality in the present, not lagging indicators.