Instead of making large initial bets, a more effective strategy is to take small, "junior varsity" positions. Investors then aggressively ramp up their size only when the thesis begins to demonstrably play out, a method described as "high conviction, inflection investing."

Many investors wrongly equate high conviction with making a large initial investment. A more evolved approach is to start with smaller at-cost positions, allowing a company's performance to earn its eventual large weighting in the portfolio. This mitigates risk and improves decision-making.

Don't chase every deal. Like a spearfisherman, anchor in a strategic area and wait patiently for the 'big fish'—a once-in-a-decade opportunity—then act decisively. This requires years of preparation and the discipline to let smaller opportunities pass by, focusing only on transformative deals.

By targeting only one deal per year, a firm removes the institutional pressure to deploy capital. This fosters a culture of extreme selectivity and patience. The ability to say 'no' for an entire year if the right opportunity doesn't arise is a powerful advantage that improves investment quality.

Emerging VCs often feel pressured by their LPs to deploy capital quickly. However, this leads to rushed, unwise decisions. The superior strategy is to act like a sniper: wait patiently for a high-conviction opportunity and be ready to act decisively, rather than investing broadly just to show activity.

Great investment outcomes often require weathering long periods of underperformance. The ability to remain patient, like holding a stock through five years of losses before it triples, is a critical skill. This long-term conviction, grounded in business fundamentals, is what separates successful investors from the rest.

Countering the 'swing for the fences' mentality, Accel co-founder Arthur Patterson's mantra is to 'focus on hitting singles and doubles and let the home runs take care of themselves.' This philosophy encourages investors to focus on fundamentals and strong founder relationships rather than trying to force a $100B outcome from day one, which often leads to failure.

Analysis of New Zealand Super's performance revealed a mediocre "batting average" (hit rate of successful investments) but an amazing "slugging average." They succeeded by allocating disproportionately large amounts of risk to their highest-conviction ideas. The magnitude of wins, not their frequency, drives long-term outperformance.

Poker provides more rapid feedback loops than trading. Its 'tight aggressive' philosophy—folding most hands but betting big on strong ones—is a perfect model for traders, teaching them to wait patiently for high-probability setups and then act with courage.