Profits from AI infrastructure (e.g., NVIDIA chips) can be misleading. The customer's purchase may be funded by a venture investment from the seller itself, making the revenue less recurring than it appears and complicating traditional valuation methods.
Giants like Alphabet and Meta are investing billions in AI primarily to protect their core businesses (Search, Ads) from disruption. Investors should view this spending as a necessary defense of their economic moat, not just as an aggressive push for new growth.
Widespread fear about AI disruption has hammered software company valuations. For a serial acquirer like Constellation Software, this is a major tailwind. They can now purchase quality, niche software businesses at more attractive prices, potentially boosting future returns.
AI coding tools struggle to replace entrenched niche software because AI lacks access to private client data and cannot provide the liability and support needed for mission-critical operations. The software's cost is often trivial compared to the operational risk of replacing it.
Great investment outcomes often require weathering long periods of underperformance. The ability to remain patient, like holding a stock through five years of losses before it triples, is a critical skill. This long-term conviction, grounded in business fundamentals, is what separates successful investors from the rest.
The top-performing Large Language Model has changed multiple times in just a few years, from OpenAI's ChatGPT to Google's Gemini to Anthropic's Claude. This rapid evolution indicates that establishing a durable competitive advantage, or moat, in the foundational model space is extremely difficult.
Exceptional CEOs sometimes exhibit true altruism, prioritizing shareholders above personal enrichment. Mark Leonard of Constellation Software cutting his salary to zero and refusing options is a prime example. This rare trait signals a deep alignment with long-term shareholder value creation.
Instead of reacting to stock prices, track the combined "owner's earnings" growth of your portfolio companies. This creates a private-equity mindset, focusing on underlying business performance. Over decades, this metric shows strong correlation with portfolio returns and helps maintain long-term discipline.
The S&P 500's historical earnings growth is ~6.7%. The ~9% growth of the last decade was an exception, driven by the unprecedented hyper-growth of a few mega-cap tech firms. As the law of large numbers catches up to these giants, investors should anticipate future index returns to revert to historical, lower norms.