The $10 billion sale of Metsera to Pfizer highlights a massive valuation arbitrage opportunity in Europe. The company, funded by US VCs, derived significant value from an asset that originated from a London university spinout. This core asset was acquired for only $34 million upfront, demonstrating that European science can be undervalued and represents a source of hidden gems for savvy investors.
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A European founder targeting the US market shouldn't dismiss European VCs. You might be the top priority in a European firm's portfolio, receiving more attention and support than you would as a lower-priority deal for a top-tier, oversubscribed Silicon Valley firm.
Unlike Private Equity or public markets, venture is maximally forgiving of high entry valuations. The potential for exponential growth (high variance) means a breakout success can still generate massive returns, even if the initial price was wrong, explaining the industry's tolerance for seemingly irrational valuations.
After years of focusing on de-risked late-stage products, the M&A market is showing a renewed appetite for risk. Recent large deals for early-stage and platform companies signal a return to an era where buyers gamble on foundational science.
Recent billion-dollar successes in the French biotech ecosystem, such as Abivax and Medincel, are largely credited to their management teams. These leaders often have significant experience working in the US and other countries. This global perspective enables them to develop assets for a worldwide market, navigate different regulatory environments, and attract international funding, breaking the mold of previously localized French biotechs.
The most lucrative exit for a startup is often not an IPO, but an M&A deal within an oligopolistic industry. When 3-4 major players exist, they can be forced into an irrational bidding war driven by the fear of a competitor acquiring the asset, leading to outcomes that are even better than going public.
Merck cited Cedara's extensive, pre-Phase 3 research on pricing and cost-effectiveness as a key factor in its $10B acquisition. This demonstrates that early-stage biotechs can significantly increase their M&A value by proactively building a robust commercial case alongside their clinical development.
Despite a pivotal data readout pending, an acquisition of Abivax could happen beforehand. Historical deals like Merck's acquisition of Prometheus and Pfizer's of Arena show that large pharma companies are willing to 'roll the dice' and pay a premium for pre-data assets when their conviction in the science is high.
The US Federal Trade Commission actively discouraged Metsera from accepting a bid from Danish company Novo Nordisk, citing antitrust concerns. This intervention, viewed as an "America First" move, was a decisive factor that allowed the US-based Pfizer to ultimately win the acquisition, signaling geopolitical influence in biopharma M&A.
With patent cliffs looming and mature assets acquired, large pharmaceutical companies are increasingly paying billion-dollar prices for early-stage and even preclinical companies. This marks a significant strategic shift in M&A towards accepting higher risk for earlier innovation.
To generate returns on a $10B acquisition, a PE firm needs a $25B exit, which often means an IPO. They must underwrite this IPO at a discount to public comps, despite having paid a 30% premium to acquire the company, creating a significant initial value gap to overcome from day one.
