Andrej Karpathy asserts that the liquidity of employee stock options is the "dominant first order term" driving talent behavior at frontier AI labs. Poor liquidity, as allegedly seen at Anthropic, reduces employee churn as it makes it harder for talent to leave and fund new ventures.
Related Insights
When a top engineer planned to leave to found a startup, Amplitude retained him by giving him autonomy to build his own project (AI Visibility). They offered a safe space to learn "while getting paid" and promised to fund his future venture, turning a potential talent loss into a massive product win.
Granting stock options is only half the battle. To make equity a powerful motivator, leaders must constantly communicate a clear and believable narrative for a future liquidity event, such as an acquisition. This vision is what transforms paper ownership into a tangible and valuable incentive in the minds of employees.
The intense talent war in AI is hyper-concentrated. All major labs are competing for the same cohort of roughly 150-200 globally-known, elite researchers who are seen as capable of making fundamental breakthroughs, creating an extremely competitive and visible talent market.
In the hyper-competitive AI talent market, companies like OpenAI are dropping the standard one-year vesting cliff. With equity packages worth millions, top candidates are unwilling to risk getting nothing if they leave before 12 months, forcing a shift in compensation norms.
SpaceX's regular tender offers provide employees with life-changing liquidity, creating a powerful incentive that rival Blue Origin lacks. This 'unfair advantage' in compensation structure is crucial in the long-term war for elite aerospace talent, going beyond just salary.
A stock price disconnected from fundamentals can be a powerful tool. As seen with Meta in 2022, a low stock price hinders recruitment. Conversely, a high stock price acts as a valuable currency for equity compensation, allowing companies to attract and retain elite employees, even if investors are skeptical of the valuation.
In the fierce competition for elite AI researchers, companies like OpenAI, Meta, and xAI are shortening or eliminating the standard one-year equity vesting cliff. This move reflects the immense leverage top talent holds, forcing companies to prioritize recruitment over traditional retention mechanisms by offering immediate equity access.
Barry Diller dismisses the common belief that stock options retain employees, calling it "hogwash." He argues people stay for opportunity and engaging work, not because they are waiting for options to vest. His approach is to provide opportunity and pay for performance in cash, empowering employees to invest if they wish.
The frenzied competition for the few thousand elite AI scientists has created a culture of constant job-hopping for higher pay, akin to a sports transfer season. This instability is slowing down major scientific progress, as significant breakthroughs require dedicated teams working together for extended periods, a rarity in the current environment.
Despite Meta offering nine-figure bonuses to retain top AI employees, its chief AI scientist is leaving to launch his own startup. This proves that in a hyper-competitive field like AI, the potential upside and autonomy of being a founder can be more compelling than even the most extravagant corporate retention packages.
