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A common mistake is panicking over poor ad performance in October and early November. This period is for demand generation. Brands must spend aggressively and accept lower initial efficiency, as that spend converts during the peak BFCM shopping window.
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Judging marketing on a daily spend vs. daily return basis is a major error. Data shows a typical purchase cycle is 3 weeks to 3 months. This time lag, not a drop in ad effectiveness, is why ROAS appears to dip when you ramp up spending. Align your measurement with this reality.
Don't worry that BFCM shoppers are low-LTV "bargain hunters." The primary goal of the holiday sales period isn't acquiring loyal customers; it's maximizing revenue and boosting your overall blended ROAS. Focus on top-of-funnel acquisition in the months leading up to November.
When conversion rates are low but CPAs are high before Black Friday, don't immediately pull spend. A high volume of 'Add to Carts' is a leading indicator of high-intent traffic that is building baskets and will likely convert when sales go live.
Don't wait for October to launch Q4 campaigns. B2B companies that introduce Q4 messaging in August generate 24% more marketing pipeline than those waiting until September. For B2C, consumers start holiday planning even earlier. Capitalize on this 'last quiet month' before the Q4 rush begins.
The period between Christmas and New Year's, dubbed 'Q5,' is an overlooked opportunity. Most advertisers pull back, causing CPMs to fall sharply. However, consumer buying intent remains high, creating a highly efficient customer acquisition window before Q1.
A key to Resident's Black Friday success is being comfortable with poor efficiency metrics in the weeks leading up to the sale. They know the investment will pay off when the holiday surge "right-sizes" the overall numbers. This requires "intestinal fortitude" to not pull back spend prematurely.
Data shows a predictable drop in shopper intent from roughly November 7th to 20th. Brands should run an initial early November sale, then strategically pull back ad spend during this "dead zone" to preserve budget for the main BFCM push starting around the 21st.
Market mix modeling revealed that during the intense Black Friday to Christmas retail period, 50% of sales were driven by brand-building work run four or more months prior. This proves long-term brand investment is crucial for converting demand during short-term sales events.
The momentum for a massive launch is built between campaigns. Callan Faulkner's team spent $200k/month on ads for smaller, evergreen offers in the months leading up to her $19.5M launch. This sustained marketing effort gathered crucial data on messaging and primed the audience for the main event.
Very few Black Friday buyers are new to your brand. The sales event is primarily for converting the demand and value you've built all year. Success is predetermined by your prior marketing efforts, not just the promotional period itself.