Permira's analysis suggests AI can replicate software features, eroding the value of high switching costs and recurring revenue. The new moat is whether a company owns critical data or is deeply embedded in workflows.

Even if AI makes it easier to build competing software, incumbent SaaS giants retain customers due to immense switching costs. The operational disruption, retraining, and integration challenges of migrating a large organization create a powerful moat against new entrants.

Traditional SaaS switching costs were based on painful data migrations, which LLMs may now automate. The new moat for AI companies is creating deep, customized integrations into a customer's unique operational workflows. This is achieved through long, hands-on pilot periods that make the AI solution indispensable and hard to replace.

As AI commoditizes user interfaces, enduring value will reside in the backend systems that are the authoritative source of data (e.g., payroll, financial records). These 'systems of record' are sticky due to regulation, business process integration, and high switching costs.

A powerful, non-obvious moat for software is deep integration with hardware. DJ software Serato partnered with hardware makers like Pioneer, becoming the industry standard. This makes switching extremely costly for users who have invested thousands in hardware, creating a durable competitive advantage.

As AI commoditizes software, hardware is re-emerging as a key defensibility layer for startups. A decade ago, VCs avoided hardware, but now a physical device tied to a software subscription creates powerful stickiness and justifies high valuations, representing a major shift in investment strategy.

Software's main competitive advantage isn't code, but its deep integration into customer data and workflows, creating high switching costs. AI threatens this moat by automating those integrated tasks, reducing customer stickiness and pricing power.

AI doesn't kill all software; it bifurcates the market. Companies with strong moats like distribution, proprietary data, and enterprise lock-in will thrive by integrating AI. However, companies whose only advantage was their software code will be wiped out as AI makes the code itself a commodity. The moat is no longer the software.

AI coding agents will make migrating between complex enterprise systems like SAP and Oracle dramatically easier and cheaper. This erodes the moat of high switching costs, forcing incumbents to compete on product value rather than customer lock-in, where they once held customers as "hostages."