The election of leaders like Japan's female prime minister, who enacts hardline policies, shows that voters are primarily driven by shared values, not identity characteristics. When a leader's ideology matches the electorate's, their gender or race becomes secondary.
The appeal of a populist leader lies in their rejection of traditional political norms. When the electorate feels betrayed by the established "political class," they gravitate toward figures whose rhetoric is a deliberate and stark contrast, signaling they are an outsider.
The central societal conflict is not between men and women, but between liberal and illiberal ideologies. Progress has historically been supported by coalitions across genders, just as the patriarchy has female supporters. Framing issues as a battle of the sexes is a counterproductive oversimplification of a deeper ideological divide.
In politics, the perception of strength and decisiveness can be more electorally powerful than being correct but appearing weak or compromising. This principle explains why a political party might maintain a hardline stance that is unpopular, as the image of strength itself resonates more with voters than the nuance of being “right.”
Voters subconsciously conflate physical traits like height and deep voices with leadership qualities. This heuristic, termed 'awesome dad energy,' provides a significant, often unacknowledged advantage to male candidates who fit the archetype, revealing a deep-seated sexism in how leadership potential is perceived.
People instinctively categorize others based on identity markers, meaning leaders will always be "missorted" through flawed assumptions. Instead of fighting this, effective leaders must accept this reality and act authentically, rather than becoming paralyzed by attempts at perception management.
From a branding perspective, voters value consistency, even if they disagree with the platform. A politician who flip-flops, like John Kerry, is seen as weak and unprincipled. Therefore, Marjorie Taylor Greene's sudden pivot away from Trump is a high-risk branding move that defies conventional political wisdom about adapting to sentiment.
The success of figures like Trump and Mamdani shows a political shift where personality trumps policy. Voters are drawn to authentic, entertainer-like candidates who connect on a human level, making traditional, unrelatable politicians obsolete.
Counterintuitively, the first female US president is predicted to be a Republican embodying a Margaret Thatcher-like 'Iron Lady' persona. To overcome gender bias, this theory suggests she will need a reputation for being exceptionally tough, possibly even more hawkish than her male counterparts, to be seen as electable.
A key demographic shift towards Trump was 45-64 year old women. The theory posits these mothers, seeing their sons struggling, voted for radical change, prioritizing their sons' futures over issues like Ukraine or abortion rights.
Society functions because humans cooperate based on shared beliefs like values or religion. These systems act as a shorthand for trust and alignment, allowing cooperation between strangers. This makes the erosion of a common value set the most significant threat to societal cohesion.