Extraordinary long-term investment returns often come from seemingly boring, overlooked companies. Eddie Elfenbein points to examples like Lancaster Colony (croutons) and Nathan's Famous (hot dogs), whose stocks have crushed the market over decades. This highlights the power of consistent, high-quality businesses that don't attract speculative hype.
The most successful founders, like Koenigsegg, say the same things on day one as they do 20 years later. Their success comes not from pivoting, but from the relentless, decades-long execution of a single, powerful vision. This unwavering consistency compounds into a massive competitive advantage and defines the company's character.
Some companies execute a 3-5 year plan and then revert to average returns. Others 'win by winning'—their success creates new opportunities and network effects, turning them into decade-long compounders that investors often sell too early.
Mark Ein's investment model focuses on finding fantastic existing companies that have plateaued. He then applies a venture-style growth mindset to accelerate their trajectory, combining the stability of an established business with the rapid-scaling tactics of a startup.
Earning a high return on invested capital is only half the battle. True compounding requires the ability to redeploy large amounts of capital at similarly high rates. Amphenol achieves this through its disciplined M&A playbook in a fragmented market, answering the crucial question of reinvestment.
The dominant strategy of investing huge sums into companies believed to be generational outliers has a critical failure mode: it can destroy viable businesses. Not every market can absorb hyper-growth, and forcing capital into a 'pretty good' company can lead to churn, stalls, and ultimately, a ruined asset.
Founders like James Dyson and Yvon Chouinard represent the "anti-business billionaire." They are obsessed with product quality and retaining control, often making decisions that seem financially sub-optimal in the short term. This relentless focus on creating the best product ultimately leads to massive financial success.
Portfolio manager Eddie Elfenbein seeks an edge by focusing on high-quality but obscure companies, like tow truck or aircraft part manufacturers. With few or no analysts following them, it's easier to understand the business deeply and identify mispricings before the broader market does.
Instead of focusing solely on new promotions, Tim Hortons achieved 17 quarters of growth by fundamentally improving its core offerings, like adding more apples to its apple fritter and ensuring coffee consistency. This builds a solid foundation for future expansion into new categories.
Financial models struggle to project sustained high growth rates (>30% YoY). Analysts naturally revert to the mean, causing them to undervalue companies that defy this and maintain high growth for years, creating an opportunity for investors who spot this persistence.
The secret to top-tier long-term results is not achieving the highest returns in any single year. Instead, it's about achieving average returns that can be sustained for an exceptionally long time. This "strategic mediocrity" allows compounding to work its magic, outperforming more volatile strategies over decades.