Cisco's stock took 25 years to reclaim its year-2000 peak, despite the underlying business growing significantly. This serves as a stark reminder that even a successful, growing company can deliver zero returns for decades if an investor buys in at an extremely high, bubble-era valuation.

The 'classic' VC model hunts for unproven talent in niche areas. The now-dominant 'super compounder' model argues the biggest market inefficiency is underestimating the best companies. This justifies investing in obvious winners at any price, believing that outlier returns will cover the high entry cost.

Some companies execute a 3-5 year plan and then revert to average returns. Others 'win by winning'—their success creates new opportunities and network effects, turning them into decade-long compounders that investors often sell too early.

Club Penguin's co-founder warns that accepting VC money creates immense pressure to become a billion-dollar company. This often crushes otherwise successful businesses that could have been profitable at a smaller scale, making founders worse off in the long run.

Raising too much money at a high valuation puts a "bogey on your back." It forces a "shoot the moon" strategy, which can decrease capital efficiency, make future fundraising harder, and limit potential exit opportunities by making the company too expensive for acquirers.

Strong, cash-rich businesses often become unfocused and bloated, tolerating poor decisions that would bankrupt lesser firms. ValueAct Capital calls this the 'disease of abundance,' which they aim to cure by refocusing management on core strengths.

The most dangerous venture stage is the "breakout" middle ground ($500M-$2B valuations). This segment is flooded with capital, leading firms to write large checks into companies that may not have durable product-market fit. This creates a high risk of capital loss, as companies are capitalized as if they are already proven winners.

In a gold rush like AI, the shared 'why now' forces many founders into a pure speed-based strategy. This is a dangerous game, as it often lacks long-term defensibility and requires an incredibly hard-charging approach that not all teams can sustain.

The venture capital return model has shifted so dramatically that even some multi-billion-dollar exits are insufficient. This forces VCs to screen for 'immortal' founders capable of building $10B+ companies from inception, making traditionally solid businesses run by 'mortal founders' increasingly uninvestable by top funds.