Contrary to the belief that exchanges have ever-increasing pricing power, CME's CEO claims its per-contract price is now cheaper than it was 25 years ago. This is achieved through a volume-based strategy, similar to Walmart, where massive increases in trading activity allow for lower individual transaction costs.

CME is entering the retail prediction market by offering short-term, binary contracts on assets like gold and oil through FanDuel. These events last only 60 minutes and run multiple times a day, designed to be simple and accessible for a gaming-oriented audience while leveraging CME's deep liquidity.

Legacy industries are often slow to adapt due to inertia and arrogance, creating massive opportunities. Flexport built a simple duty calculator in three days that the entire trade industry adopted, proving that a startup's key to success can be entering a field where competitors are technologically complacent.

The traditional dynamic has flipped. Institutional investors are no longer the sole trendsetters; they now observe and institutionalize strategies, like zero-day options, that originate with retail traders. Professionals are now playing catch-up to understand and replicate what the public is doing.

Blockchain's disruption will not impact all of finance equally. Trading firms are safe because market making is a fundamental need. However, intermediaries like banks, exchanges, and custodians face an existential threat as their core function—managing ledgers and access—is directly replaced by blockchain's "private key and a ledger" infrastructure.

The next evolution of finance will break away from the traditional "portfolio and search box" interface. Instead, trading will be embedded directly into new contexts and "modalities." Examples include trading via Telegram bots, placing micro-bets on live sports via a TV interface, or interacting with prediction markets directly within a news article.

Prediction markets are accelerating their normalization by integrating directly into established ecosystems. Partnerships with Google, Robinhood, and the NYSE's owner embed gambling-like activities into everyday financial and informational tools, lowering barriers to entry and lending them legitimacy.

Hyperscalers are new ecosystem marketplaces, not just advanced distributors. They have fundamentally changed the B2B customer journey, invalidating traditional sales and marketing playbooks. Established tech companies must adapt to new co-selling motions or risk becoming obsolete.

A consistent pattern shows innovators adopting the models of legacy players they displaced. YouTube creating cable-like bundles, Coinbase mirroring traditional banks, and Facebook becoming new media illustrates a natural lifecycle where disruptors eventually converge with the industries they set out to revolutionize.