In 2022, investors punished Meta's stock for its Reality Labs CapEx. Today, the market applauds even larger AI-related spending (66% of MAG-5's operating cash flow). This signals a fundamental belief that AI investments translate directly to tangible near-term earnings, unlike speculative bets like the Metaverse.

In the AI era, network effects are less about connecting users (like Facebook) and more about data acquisition. The more users interact with a product, the more proprietary data (keystrokes, clicks, workflows) is collected. This data is then used to train and improve the model, creating a better product that attracts more users.

The next evolution, the Generative Ads Recommendation Model (GEM), aims to fully automate ad creation. Marketers will simply provide an image and a budget, and the AI will generate the entire ad library. This shifts the marketer's primary value from ad creation to optimizing the post-click customer journey and offer.

While the market seeks revenue from novel AI products, the first significant financial impact has come from using AI to enhance existing digital advertising engines. This has driven unexpected growth for companies like Meta and Google, proving AI's immediate value beyond generative applications.

Cookie deprecation blinds ad platforms like Google and Meta to on-site conversion quality. Marketers can gain a significant performance edge by creating a feedback loop, pushing their attributed first-party data (like lifetime value and margins) back into the platforms' AI systems in near real-time.

Previously, marketers told Meta who to target. With the new AI algorithm, marketers provide diverse creative, and the AI uses that creative to find the right audience. Targeting control has shifted from human to machine, fundamentally changing how ads are built and optimized.

AI conversations capture high-intent moments, allowing ads to target active decision-making rather than passive attention-grabbing like social media. This fundamental difference could lead to significantly higher average revenue per user (ARPU), making social media's ad performance a floor, not a ceiling for AI platforms.

Meta's core moat is its ability to solve the classic advertiser's dilemma: knowing which half of their ad spend works. By providing granular data on impressions, conversions, and ROI, it created what Pat Dorsey called the perfect advertising platform.

Meta's ad recommendations excel because Apple's privacy changes created a do-or-die situation. This necessity forced them to pioneer GPU-based AI for ad targeting, a move competitors without the same pressure failed to make, despite having similar data and talent.