We scan new podcasts and send you the top 5 insights daily.
During the decade of low interest rates, Triton resisted industry pressure to accelerate deployment. Seeing overpriced assets, they extended their Triton V fund's investment period to six years—double the industry average—maintaining discipline while others chased deals.
Unlike other models, a traditional PE fund has a fixed period (usually five years) to invest its capital. This creates a "pressure to deploy" that can lead to strategy drift. If a manager cannot find deals in their stated niche, they may be tempted to make bad investments just to avoid returning capital.
When high-yield bonds yielded only 4.5% in late 2021, Apollo abstained, viewing it as poor risk-return. Because they invest their own capital heavily alongside clients, they have the discipline to sit out popular but overpriced markets, even if it means forgoing AUM growth that competitors chased.
The biggest venture outcomes often take 8-10 years or more to mature. Instead of optimizing for quick IRR, early-stage VCs should embrace long holding periods. This "duration" is a feature that allows for massive value creation and aligns with building truly transformative companies, prioritizing multiples over short-term gains.
Despite seeing 100x revenue multiples reminiscent of 2021, VCs are not accelerating their fund deployment or rushing back to fundraise. This more measured pace indicates a potential lesson learned from the last bubble, where rapid deployment led to poor vintage performance and pressure from LPs.
In venture capital, the greatest danger isn't investing at high valuations during a boom; it's ceasing to invest during a bust. The psychological pressure to stop when markets are negative is immense, but the best VCs maintain a disciplined, mechanical pace of investment to ensure they are active at the bottom.
Emerging VCs often feel pressured by their LPs to deploy capital quickly. However, this leads to rushed, unwise decisions. The superior strategy is to act like a sniper: wait patiently for a high-conviction opportunity and be ready to act decisively, rather than investing broadly just to show activity.
Peder Prahl of Triton explains their focus on discovering investment opportunities in niches like infrastructure and defense before the market broadly recognizes them. This requires foresight and conviction to invest ahead of the crowd, rather than following established trends.
The modern market is driven by short-term incentives, with hedge funds and pod shops trading based on quarterly estimates. This creates volatility and mispricing. An investor who can withstand short-term underperformance and maintain a multi-year view can exploit these structural inefficiencies.
Unlike traditional funds that face pressure to deploy capital within a set timeframe, a HoldCo's greatest strategic advantage is patience. Value is created by waiting for the right opportunity at the right price, not by rushing to do deals.
In the current late-cycle, frothy environment, maintaining investment discipline is paramount. Oaktree, guided by Howard Marks' philosophy, is intentionally cautious and passing on the majority of deals presented. This discipline is crucial for avoiding the "worst deals done in the best of times" and preserving capital for future dislocations.