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Despite India's healthy absolute earnings growth, it pales in comparison to other markets like Korea, Taiwan, and Japan. This 'relative growth disadvantage' makes it challenging to attract short-term-oriented foreign investors who are currently focusing on markets with more dramatic growth stories, even though India's long-term prospects remain strong.
While memory chip stocks are driving massive profit growth in the Korean market, there is still over 40% earnings growth in the rest of the market, excluding semis. This non-chip growth is fueled by strong global themes in shipbuilding, power equipment, defense spending, and the popularity of "K-culture."
A frequently overlooked lesson from East Asia's success is the power of stable, predictable growth rates. Developmental states focused on minimizing volatility, which signaled to the private sector that steady expansion was reliable. This encouraged long-term private investment, a crucial component often missing in more volatile economies.
While both Korea and Taiwan benefit from the AI boom, Korean large-caps have seen more explosive earnings growth. This is due to a key strategic difference: Korean memory makers have leveraged supply shortages to significantly increase prices, leading to earnings estimates multiplying 5-6x. In contrast, Taiwanese firms have shown more pricing discipline.
While bullish on India, investors should note it's not participating in every global trend. Unlike North Asia (Korea, Taiwan), India is not a player in the "AI picks and shovels" hardware theme. It also lacks the investment drivers seen in Europe related to serving an aging population.
India's premium valuations are not just based on growth hopes. Deeper structural changes like reduced oil reliance and fiscal consolidation are creating a smaller saving imbalance. This leads to structurally lower interest rates and volatility, which fundamentally supports higher price-to-earnings multiples for equities.
North Asian markets (Korea, Taiwan) are dramatically outperforming South Asia (Indonesia) due to a dual dynamic. North Asia is insulated from energy price shocks by its wealth and buffer stocks, while also being the primary beneficiary of the global AI technology boom, a trade South Asia largely lacks.
Despite being one of the world's fastest-growing economies, India's projected 6.5% GDP growth is insufficient. It requires 7.5% growth just to keep unemployment stable and a staggering 12% to address widespread underemployment, revealing the immense scale of its labor market challenge.
Recent policy changes, such as removing withholding tax on debt, are specifically designed to attract capital into India's debt markets to stabilize the currency. However, these measures are not expected to significantly impact foreign equity inflows, which are more dependent on an improved relative growth outlook or the start of a major IPO cycle.
Unlike in Western markets, the rapid growth of consumption in India (12-13%) makes it just as easy for consumer-focused companies to secure funding as it is for technology businesses. This trend is driven by a younger generation that is saving less and spending more.
Dalio's leading indicators show India has the ingredients for the world's strongest growth rate over the next decade. He compares its current state—low debt, a talented population, and a massive infrastructure build-out—to where China was roughly 30 years ago, suggesting a similar long-term growth curve.