Contrary to popular belief, earnings growth has a very low correlation with decadal stock returns. The primary driver is the change in the valuation multiple (e.g., P/E ratio expansion or contraction). The correlation between 10-year real returns and 10-year valuation changes is a staggering 0.9, while it is tiny for earnings growth.

Unlike previous years dominated by a single theme, 2026 will require a more nuanced approach. Performance will be driven by a range of factors including country-specific fiscal dynamics, the end of rate-cutting cycles, election outcomes, and beneficiaries of AI capex. Investors must move from a single macro view to a multi-factor differentiation strategy.

Today's high S&P 500 valuation isn't a bubble. The market's composition has shifted from cyclical sectors (where high margins compress multiples) to mature tech (where high margins expand them). This structural change supports today's higher price-to-sales ratios, making the market fairly valued.

Contrary to the common fear that frequent capital raising indicates overvaluation, the current trend in India should be viewed as a positive forward-looking indicator. It suggests companies are proactively funding future expansion and growth projects, reflecting strong confidence in the economic recovery rather than just frothy market conditions.

Contrary to conventional wisdom, re-accelerating inflation can be a positive for stocks. It indicates that corporations have regained pricing power, which boosts earnings growth. This improved earnings outlook can justify a lower equity risk premium, allowing for higher stock valuations.

The potential Indian market comeback is built on a two-pronged approach. It combines aggressive, short-term reflationary measures like rate and tax cuts to spark immediate momentum with long-term structural economic shifts like fiscal consolidation and an export focus, which provide a stable foundation for sustained growth.

The stock market is not overvalued based on historical metrics; it's a forward-looking mechanism pricing in massive future productivity gains from AI and deregulation. Investors are betting on a fundamentally more efficient economy, justifying valuations that seem detached from today's reality.

The argument against a market top is that high multiples are justified. In an era of sustained currency debasement, investors must hold assets like stocks to preserve purchasing power. This historical precedent suggests today's valuations might be a new, structurally higher baseline.

When asset valuations are elevated across all major markets, traditional fundamental analysis becomes less predictive of short-term price movements. Investors should instead focus on macro drivers of liquidity, such as foreign exchange rates, cross-border flows, and interest rates.