The justification for OpenAI's seemingly impossible spending lies in extrapolating its historical growth. Having tripled revenue annually for years (from $3.5M to over $14B), the bullish thesis is that this compounding will easily support future infrastructure costs, making the current spend appear small in comparison.

OpenAI's revenue projection of growing from $10 billion to $100 billion in three years is historically unprecedented. For comparison, it took established tech giants like NVIDIA, Meta, and Google between six to ten years to achieve the same growth milestone, highlighting the extreme velocity expected in the AI market.

While OpenAI pursues a broad strategy across consumer, science, and enterprise, Anthropic is hyper-focused on the $2 trillion software development market. This narrow focus on high-value enterprise use cases is allowing it to accelerate revenue significantly faster than its more diversified rival.

Notion's funding history reveals its valuation significantly outpaced revenue, reaching $10B on just $31M ARR in 2021. However, the company subsequently grew revenue almost 20x to $600M while its valuation only increased 10%, demonstrating how outlier companies can eventually grow into seemingly inflated valuations.

In the current AI boom, companies are raising subsequent funding rounds at the same high revenue multiples as previous ones, months apart. This is because growth rates aren't decelerating as expected, challenging the wisdom that valuation multiples must compress as revenue scales.

Contrary to the popular narrative of OpenAI's dominance, analysis suggests Anthropic's quarterly ARR additions have already overtaken OpenAI's. The rapid, viral adoption of Claude Code is seen as the primary driver, positioning Anthropic to dramatically outgrow its main rival, with growth constrained only by compute availability.

The tech market is experiencing a "gravity well" effect, where immense pressure pulls down valuations for most companies. This forces investors to focus exclusively on AI leaders like Anthropic that demonstrate the "escape velocity" required to counteract this powerful downward trend.

Despite its massive price tag, Anthropic's valuation is justifiable on a forward revenue multiple basis. If they achieve another year of hypergrowth, their NTM revenue multiple would be lower than public tech companies like Palantir, making the current round look inexpensive.

Anthropic's and OpenAI's massive revenue forecasts ($300B+ combined) aren't about displacing existing software spend. The core bet is that AI will capture a large portion of the trillion-dollar consulting and services budget, dramatically expanding the total addressable market for technology.