If homeowners and corporations begin generating their own power via solar, storage, and colocation, it could trigger a crisis for traditional utilities. Their entire business model, based on a centralized grid and rate base, would be at risk, making them a massive potential short for investors.
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The biggest challenge in energy isn't just generating power, but moving it efficiently. While transmission lines move power geographically, batteries "move" it temporally—from times of surplus to times of scarcity. This reframes batteries as a direct competitor to traditional grid infrastructure.
Base's core thesis is that the shift to solar and battery storage is inevitable not because of ESG trends, but because it represents the lowest marginal cost to add power to the grid. This economic argument is more fundamental and compelling than climate narratives alone.
To overcome energy bottlenecks, political opposition, and grid reliability issues, AI data center developers are building their own dedicated, 'behind-the-meter' power plants. This strategy, typically using natural gas, ensures a stable power supply for their massive operations without relying on the public grid.
AI companies are building their own power plants due to slow utility responses. They overbuild for reliability, and this excess capacity will eventually be sold back to the grid, transforming them into desirable sources of cheap, local energy for communities within five years.
A radical proposal suggests making residential electricity free up to a certain cap by increasing industrial and commercial rates by 50%. This would alleviate household costs and incentivize large companies to build their own private power systems, increasing the nation's total energy supply.
The rise of rooftop solar, local batteries, and on-site generation means power is increasingly produced closer to where it's used. This trend is devaluing long-distance transmission infrastructure and suggests the future grid will be far more decentralized and localized.
The restructuring of the U.S. electricity sector wasn't purely ideological. It was a direct response to regulated utilities making massive, incorrect bets on demand growth, building unneeded power plants, and causing prices to skyrocket for captive customers. Competition was introduced to shift this investment risk from consumers to private investors.
The cost of electricity has two components: making it and moving it. Generation ("making") costs are plummeting due to cheap solar. However, transmission ("moving") costs are rising from aging infrastructure. This indicates the biggest area for innovation is in distribution, not generation.
The public power grid cannot support the massive energy needs of AI data centers. This will force a shift toward on-site, "behind-the-meter" power generation, likely using natural gas, where data centers generate their own power and only "sip" from the grid during off-peak times.
To circumvent grid connection delays, infrastructure costs, and potential consumer rate impacts, data centers are increasingly opting for energy independence. They are deploying on-site power solutions like gas turbines and fuel cells, which can be faster to implement and avoid burdening the local utility system.
