The current trend of AI infrastructure providers investing in their largest customers, who then use that capital to buy their products, mirrors the risky vendor financing seen in the dot-com bubble. This creates circular capital flows and potential systemic risk.
A drug that reduces appetite is a poor product for dogs. A dog's excitement for food is a major source of joy and a core part of the owner-pet relationship. Removing this makes the dog seem "grumpy" and diminishes the perceived bond, a critical failure for a consumer pet product.
The true challenge for the rumored OpenAI hardware isn't production, but breaking through Apple's powerful ecosystem effects, particularly iMessage integration. User adoption of a new, screenless form factor is another major, unsolved problem that has stumped previous startups.
By inking deals with NVIDIA, AMD, and major cloud providers, OpenAI is making its survival integral to the entire tech ecosystem. If OpenAI faces financial trouble, its numerous powerful partners will be heavily incentivized to provide support, effectively making it too big to fail.
The bottleneck for AI in drug development isn't the sophistication of the models but the absence of large-scale, high-quality biological data sets. Without comprehensive data on how drugs interact within complex human systems, even the best AI models cannot make accurate predictions.
OpenAI's deal structures highlight the market's perception of chip providers. NVIDIA commanded a direct investment from OpenAI to secure its chips (a premium). In contrast, AMD had to offer equity warrants to OpenAI to win its business (a discount), reflecting their relative negotiating power.
The FDA incentivizes animal drug development by granting years of market exclusivity to companies that prove a generic human drug works for a novel use in animals. This avoids the "aspirin problem" in human medicine, where no one will fund trials for off-patent drugs because they can't be profitably marketed.
OpenAI's Agent Builder could establish a middle market between free, ad-supported consumers and large enterprise API users. This "prosumer" tier would consist of power users willing to pay based on their consumption of advanced, automated workflows, creating a new revenue stream.
The public power grid cannot support the massive energy needs of AI data centers. This will force a shift toward on-site, "behind-the-meter" power generation, likely using natural gas, where data centers generate their own power and only "sip" from the grid during off-peak times.
Unlike past tech booms funded by venture capital, the next wave of AI investment will come from hyperscalers like Google and Meta leveraging their pristine balance sheets to take on massive corporate debt. Their capacity to raise capital this way dwarfs the entire VC ecosystem, enabling unprecedented spending.
By allowing any developer to integrate its best video model via API, OpenAI is likely signaling it doesn't believe it can build a dominant, self-contained social video platform. A company aiming to create a new TikTok would maintain exclusivity over its core technology to maximize its competitive advantage.