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The landscape for US microcap investing has fundamentally changed. High-quality companies, like a 1970s Walmart, no longer go public as microcaps due to regulations and private capital availability. Today's microcap universe is largely composed of 'fallen angels' or picked-over companies, requiring a more discerning approach.

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A sophisticated approach to microcap investing mirrors private equity by becoming a 'value-added investor.' This involves taking a significant position and actively advising management on capital markets and strategy. The goal is to be a multiplier for the business, which provides fulfillment beyond just financial returns.

While the number of US public companies has fallen from over 6,000 to 4,000, this decline is concentrated in micro-cap and small-cap stocks. For diversified, long-term investors, the loss of these smaller, often less-stable companies may not have significantly impacted overall market returns.

The quality of public small-cap companies, measured by Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), has plummeted from 7.5% to 3% over 30 years. This degradation means high-growth opportunities now predominantly exist in the later-stage private markets. Institutional investors must shift their asset allocation to venture and growth equity, which has become "the big leagues," not a bespoke asset class.

The traditional purpose of an IPO—raising capital for company growth—is obsolete. Today, companies scale using private equity and only go public to allow early investors and insiders to cash out. This means the public market captures significantly less of a company's early, high-growth phase.

Unlike large-cap 'buy and hold' strategies, microcaps are fragile small businesses with high concentration risks (customer, management, geography). Investor Ian Cassel argues they have short 'winning seasons.' The key question isn't 'is this a good company?' but 'how long can this winning streak last?'—which is usually shorter than you think.

Contrary to the 'buy and hold forever' mantra, the fragile nature of microcap businesses means most should be 'rented,' not owned long-term. Due to risks like customer concentration, the average hold period is often around one year, as very few companies prove worthy of holding for extended periods.

As high-growth tech companies delay IPOs, the public small-cap market is left with lower-quality assets. The return on invested capital (ROIC) for the Russell 2500 index has more than halved over 30 years, signaling a fundamental shift for institutional investors.

Due to the abundance of private capital, companies now go public much later in their lifecycle. The IPO has consequently become the final exit for insiders to cash out, leaving little upside for retail investors who are effectively buying at the peak.

The venture capital paradigm has inverted. Historically, private companies traded at an "illiquidity discount" to their public counterparts. Now, for elite companies, there is an "access premium" where investors pay more for private shares due to scarcity and hype. This makes staying private longer more attractive.

The market for hyper-growth tech companies now exists almost exclusively in private markets, with only 5% of public software firms growing over 25%. With companies staying private for 14+ years, public markets are now for mature, slower-growing businesses.