AI experts like Eric Schmidt and Henry Kissinger predict AI will split society into two tiers: a small elite who develops AI and a large class that becomes dependent on it for decisions. This reliance will lead to "cognitive diminishment," where critical thinking skills atrophy, much like losing mental math abilities by overusing a calculator.
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As AI makes it increasingly easy to get answers without effort, society may split into two groups. Bernd Hobart suggests a "cognitive underclass" will opt for the ease of AI-generated solutions, while a "cognitive overclass" will deliberately engage in the now-optional hard work of critical thinking, creating a new societal divide.
Historical inventions have atrophied human faculties, creating needs for artificial substitutes (e.g., gyms for physical work). Social media has atrophied socializing, creating a market for "social skills" apps. The next major risk is that AI will atrophe critical thinking, eventually requiring "thinking gyms" to retrain our minds.
The coming economic shift won't create a simple rich-poor divide. It will create a new four-tiered social structure based on two key traits: judgment and entrepreneurial ability. The majority who lack both will be left economically non-viable.
Historically, humans moved from manual to cognitive labor as technology automated physical tasks. Emad Mostaque argues AI now automates cognitive work, creating an "intelligence inversion." There's no obvious higher-value domain left for human labor to escape to, unlike previous technological shifts.
For some policy experts, the most realistic nightmare scenario is not a rogue superintelligence but a socio-economic collapse into techno-feudalism. In this future, AI concentrates power and wealth, creating a rentier state with a small ruling class and a large population with minimal economic agency or purpose.
While AI can accelerate tasks like writing, the real learning happens during the creative process itself. By outsourcing the 'doing' to AI, we risk losing the ability to think critically and synthesize information. Research shows our brains are physically remapping, reducing our ability to think on our feet.
The most dangerous long-term impact of AI is not economic unemployment, but the stripping away of human meaning and purpose. As AI masters every valuable skill, it will disrupt the core human algorithm of contributing to the group, leading to a collective psychological crisis and societal decay.
Frame AI not as a tool, but as a wave of "digital immigrants" with superhuman cognitive abilities. Similar to how the NAFTA trade agreement outsourced manufacturing, AI will outsource knowledge work. This will create abundance for some but risks hollowing out the middle class and social fabric.
As AI systems become infinitely scalable and more capable, humans will become the weakest link in any cognitive team. The high risk of human error and incorrect conclusions means that, from a purely economic perspective, human cognitive input will eventually detract from, rather than add to, value creation.
As AIs increasingly perform all economically necessary work, the incentive for entities like governments and corporations to invest in human capital may disappear. This creates a long-term risk of a society where humans are no longer seen as a necessary resource to cultivate, leading to a permanent dependency.
