A common cognitive error is justifying a decision with a long list of minor benefits ("blended reasons"). A robust decision should be justifiable based on one single, strong reason. If that primary reason isn't compelling enough on its own, the decision is likely weak.
Being unable to choose between several viable ideas isn't a strategy problem; it's a psychological one. This indecisiveness is often a defense mechanism, allowing you to talk about potential without ever risking the public failure of execution. The solution is to force a decision—flip a coin, draw from a hat—and commit.
While studying cognitive biases (like Charlie Munger advises) is useful, it's hard to apply in real-time. A more practical method for better decision-making is to use a Socratic approach: ask yourself simple, probing questions about your reasoning, assumptions, and expected outcomes.
When faced with imperfect choices, treat the decision like a standardized test question: gather the best available information and choose the option you believe is the *most* correct, even if it's not perfect. This mindset accepts ambiguity and focuses on making the best possible choice in the moment.
A psychology experiment revealed that people forced to commit to a choice became happier with it over time because the brain rationalizes the decision, effectively manufacturing happiness. In contrast, keeping options open leads to second-guessing and dissatisfaction. Decisiveness is a key to happiness.
Leaders often fail to separate outcome from process. A good result from a bad decision (like a risky bet paying off) reinforces poor judgment. Attributing success solely to skill and failure to bad luck prevents process improvement and leads to repeated errors over time.
People lack the attention for complex solutions. A simple, memorable soundbite, like Donald Trump's "Build a wall," will often defeat a comprehensive, nuanced plan, like Jeb Bush's book on immigration. The message with the lowest cognitive load wins, regardless of its substance.
Intuition is often overridden in professional settings because it's intangible. A bad decision backed by a rational explanation is often more acceptable than a good one based on a "gut feeling," which can feel professionally risky.
To gain clarity on a major decision, analyze the potential *bad* outcomes that could result from getting what you want. This counterintuitive exercise reveals hidden motivations and clarifies whether you truly desire the goal, leading to more robust choices.
Categorize decisions by reversibility. 'Hats' are easily reversible (move fast). 'Haircuts' are semi-permanent (live with them for a bit). 'Tattoos' are irreversible (think carefully). Most business decisions are hats or haircuts, but we treat them like tattoos, wasting time.
True strategic decision-making involves evaluating trade-offs and understanding the opportunity cost of the chosen path. If you cannot articulate what you chose *not* to do, you didn't make a conscious decision; you simply reacted to a situation and applied a strategic label in retrospect.