History shows that transformative technologies like aviation created immense societal value without concentrating wealth in a few companies. AI could follow this path, with its benefits being widely distributed through commoditization, challenging the multi-trillion dollar valuations of today's leading firms.

As powerful AI models become capable of running offline on local devices, they challenge the centralized, platform-based model of companies like Google and Facebook. This shift towards decentralized intelligence could fundamentally disrupt the digital economy by removing the need for gatekeepers.

Contrary to fears of a monopoly, the AI market is heading toward a diverse ecosystem. The proliferation of open-weight models and specialized tooling allows companies to build and control their own differentiated AI systems rather than simply renting intelligence token-by-token from a handful of large labs.

History shows that transformative innovations like airlines, vaccines, and PCs, while beneficial to society, often fail to create sustained, concentrated shareholder value as they become commoditized. This suggests the massive valuations in AI may be misplaced, with the technology's benefits accruing more to users than investors in the long run.

Leading AI models are becoming increasingly similar in capability. This rapid convergence suggests the underlying technology is becoming a commodity, and competitive advantage will likely shift to user interface, distribution, and specific applications rather than the core model itself.

The most profound innovations in history, like vaccines, PCs, and air travel, distributed value broadly to society rather than being captured by a few corporations. AI could follow this pattern, benefiting the public more than a handful of tech giants, especially with geopolitical pressures forcing commoditization.

To avoid a future where a few companies control AI and hold society hostage, the underlying intelligence layer must be commoditized. This prevents "landlords" of proprietary models from extracting rent and ensures broader access and competition.

The current AI landscape mirrors the historic Windows-Intel duopoly. OpenAI is the new Microsoft, controlling the user-facing software layer, while NVIDIA acts as the new Intel, dominating essential chip infrastructure. This parallel suggests a long-term power concentration is forming.

For the first time, a disruptive technology's most advanced capabilities are available to the public from day one via consumer apps. An individual with a smartphone has access to the same state-of-the-art AI as a top VC or Fortune 500 CEO, making it the most democratic technology in history.