Contrary to the dominant job-loss narrative, a Vanguard study reveals that occupations highly exposed to AI are experiencing faster growth in both jobs and wages. This suggests AI is currently acting as a productivity tool that increases the value of labor rather than replacing it.

The narrative blaming AI for job insecurity is misdirected. The true cause is decades of government promising services it can't efficiently deliver, leading to inflation and distorted markets. AI is a convenient, visible target for problems with deeper roots in policy.

Stanford economist Erik Brynjolfsson argues that a major downward revision of 2025 job numbers, while GDP figures remained strong, mathematically implies a massive productivity surge. This suggests AI's economic impact is finally visible in macroeconomic data, moving beyond anecdote and theory.

Firms are attributing job cuts to AI, but this may be a performative narrative for the stock market rather than a reflection of current technological displacement. Experts are skeptical that AI is mature enough to be the primary driver of large-scale layoffs, suggesting it's more likely a convenient cover for post-pandemic rebalancing.

While proclaiming AI will create jobs, tech giants like Google and Meta have seen profits soar while their employee counts have fallen from 2022 peaks. This data from AI's biggest adopters provides concrete evidence that fuels public skepticism and fears of widespread, technology-driven job losses.

A viral chart linking ChatGPT's launch to falling job openings is misleading. Job openings began declining months earlier, largely due to Fed interest rate hikes. This highlights how complex macroeconomic trends are often oversimplified in popular narratives that rush to assign blame to new technology.

While companies cite AI when announcing layoffs, the data shows cuts are concentrated in industries that over-hired post-pandemic. Job losses in sectors like tech and professional services represent a "reversion to the mean" trendline, countering the narrative that AI is already replacing workers at scale.

Benchmark revisions to 2025 jobs data show the labor market was significantly weaker than initially reported. This suggests a 'Main Street recession' occurred, which was papered over by massive AI capital expenditures and spending by top-percentile earners.

Contrary to the popular narrative, AI is not yet a primary driver of white-collar layoffs. Instead of eliminating roles, it's changing the nature of work within them. For example, analysts now spend time on different, higher-value activities rather than manual tasks, suggesting a shift in job content rather than a reduction in headcount.