Many investors focus on the current size of a company's competitive advantage. A better indicator of future success is the direction of that moat—is it growing or shrinking? Focusing on the trajectory helps avoid value traps like Nokia in 2007, which had a wide but deteriorating moat.

The long-held belief that a complex codebase provides a durable competitive advantage is becoming obsolete due to AI. As software becomes easier to replicate, defensibility shifts away from the technology itself and back toward classic business moats like network effects, brand reputation, and deep industry integration.

Early-stage founders should not prematurely optimize for defensibility. The primary focus must be on solving a real problem and building something people want. Moats are a defensive strategy that only becomes relevant once a startup has created value worth protecting.

When a niche-dominant company like Remitly announces a massive TAM expansion, it can be a negative signal. This move often means abandoning a defensible moat to compete in a larger, more competitive market where its specialized advantages no longer apply, risking its core business.

Google authored the seminal 'Transformers' AI paper but failed to capitalize on it, allowing outsiders to build the next wave of AI. This shows how incumbents can be so 'lost in the sauce' of their current paradigm that they don't notice when their own research creates a fundamental shift.

The fluid nature of AI means traditional moats are unreliable. Defensibility is no longer a static plan but a daily practice of innovation and execution. Even established public companies feel threatened, proving that staying ahead requires constant movement and earning your position every day.

AI drastically accelerates the ability of incumbents and competitors to clone new products, making early traction and features less defensible. For seed investors, this means the traditional "first-mover advantage" is fragile, shifting the investment thesis heavily towards the quality and adaptability of the founding team.

As the market leader, OpenAI has become risk-averse to avoid media backlash. This has “damaged the product,” making it overly cautious and less useful. Meanwhile, challengers like Google have adopted a risk-taking posture, allowing them to innovate faster. This shows how a defensive mindset can cede ground to hungrier competitors.

A durable competitive advantage, as defined by lessons from Amazon's Jeff Bezos, is an edge that persists even if a competitor woke up tomorrow and perfectly copied your strategy with equally talented people. Amazon used its early cost advantage to build physical fulfillment centers, creating an infrastructure lead that became impossible to close, even once the strategy was obvious.