The concept of 'Fed independence' has a narrow, critical meaning: the sitting government cannot dictate monetary policy. It does not mean the Fed is unaccountable. This separation is based on empirical evidence from countries without it, where political pressure on interest rates consistently leads to runaway inflation.

Due to massive government debt, the Fed's tools work paradoxically. Raising rates increases the deficit via higher interest payments, which is stimulative. Cutting rates is also inherently stimulative. The Fed is no longer controlling inflation but merely choosing the path through which it occurs.

The U.S. Treasury's recent interventions, such as increasing bond buybacks, represent a step into the monetary policy domain. Traditionally focused on funding the government, the Treasury now appears to be actively managing the yield curve, a role historically reserved for the Federal Reserve, signaling a potential policy shift.

'Fiscal dominance' occurs when government spending, not central bank policy, dictates the economy. In this state, the Federal Reserve's actions, like interest rate cuts, become largely ineffective for long-term stability. They can create short-term sentiment shifts but cannot overcome the overwhelming force of massive government deficit spending.

The Treasury is doubling bond buybacks to suppress long-term yields without the Fed's public support. This gambit, intended to manage debt costs, is seen by the market as a temporary fix that will likely fail without the Fed printing money, creating a tense standoff with traders.

Under "fiscal dominance," the U.S. government's massive debt dictates Federal Reserve policy. The Fed must keep rates low enough for the government to afford interest payments, even if it fuels inflation. Monetary policy is no longer about managing the economy but about preventing a debt-driven collapse, making the Fed reactive, not proactive.

Despite fears of fiscal dominance driving yields up, US bond yields have remained controlled. This suggests a "financial repression" scenario is winning, where the Treasury and Federal Reserve coordinate, perhaps through careful auction management, to keep borrowing costs contained and suppress long-term rates.

Despite talk of independence, the Fed is constrained by massive US debt. Any chair, regardless of ideology, will be forced to intervene to prevent a Treasury market collapse, as there isn't enough private balance sheet to finance deficits without the Fed's help.

The U.S. government's debt is so large that the Federal Reserve is trapped. Raising interest rates would trigger a government default, while cutting them would further inflate the 'everything bubble.' Either path leads to a systemic crisis, a situation economists call 'fiscal dominance.'