The common advice to overcome sunk cost fallacy—"imagine you didn't own this, would you buy it today?"—is ineffective because you cannot truly ignore the reality of ownership. A more robust method is setting pre-commitment contracts or "kill criteria" that force a decision when specific signals are observed.
Combat indecision and emotional attachment by pre-committing to sell an investment if it fails to meet a specific metric (the state) by a specific deadline (the date). This creates a pre-commitment contract that closes long feedback loops and prevents complacency with underperforming assets.
Contrary to the economic theory that more choice is always better, people sometimes prefer fewer options. Removing a tempting choice, like a bowl of cashews before dinner, can lead to better outcomes by acting as a pre-commitment device, which helps overcome a lack of self-control.
Private equity managers often get psychologically anchored to their purchase price. Instead of cutting losses on a poorly performing asset to redeploy time and capital, they hold on in the vain hope of getting their money back, turning a bad deal into a time-consuming, mediocre one.
To avoid emotional, performance-chasing mistakes, write down your selling criteria in advance and intentionally exclude recent performance from the list. This forces a focus on more rational reasons, such as a broken investment thesis, manager changes, excessive fees, or shifting personal goals, thereby preventing reactionary decisions based on market noise.
When deciding whether to continue a venture or quit, the key isn't just data. It's a personal calculation balancing two powerful emotions: the potential future regret of quitting too soon versus your current tolerance for financial anxiety and stress. This framework helps make subjective, high-stakes decisions more manageable by focusing on personal emotional thresholds.
To decide whether to sell a long-held asset you're attached to, imagine it was sold overnight and the cash is in your account. The question then becomes: "Would you use that cash to buy it back today?" This reframe bypasses status quo bias and the endowment effect, making the correct decision immediately obvious.
Once people invest significant time, money, and social identity into a group or ideology, it becomes psychologically costly to admit it's wrong. This 'sunk cost' fallacy creates cognitive dissonance, causing people to double down on their beliefs rather than face the pain of a misguided investment.
To combat endowment effect and status quo bias, legendary trader Paul Tudor Jones advises viewing every position as if you were deciding to put it on today. This creates a zero-based mindset, forcing you to justify each holding's continued place in your portfolio.
Willpower is an unreliable tool for financial progress. Instead, strategically add small obstacles to curb bad habits (like impulse spending) and remove barriers for good ones (like investing). This environmental design changes behavior more effectively than self-control alone.
Evaluate every check, including follow-on investments, independently from prior commitments. The decision should be based solely on the current risk-adjusted value of that capital, not on past investments, which prevents throwing good money after bad.