Post-WWII, economists pursued mathematical rigor by modeling human behavior as perfectly rational (i.e., 'maximizing'). This was a convenient simplification for building models, not an accurate depiction of how people actually make decisions, which are often messy and imperfect.
In auctions with uncertain value (like oil leases or even NFL draft picks), the winner is not a random bidder but the one with the most optimistic valuation. This often means the winner has significantly overestimated the item's true worth and is therefore 'cursed' by their victory.
To drive adoption, changing the default from opt-in to opt-out is far more effective than simply reducing friction. When a company automatically enrolled new employees into a 401(k) plan, participation jumped from 50% to 90%, demonstrating the immense power of status quo bias.
Milton Friedman's 'as if' defense of rational models—that people act 'as if' they are experts—is flawed. Predicting the behavior of an average golfer by modeling Tiger Woods is bound to fail. Models must account for the behavior of regular people, not just theoretical, hyper-rational experts.
Contrary to the economic theory that more choice is always better, people sometimes prefer fewer options. Removing a tempting choice, like a bowl of cashews before dinner, can lead to better outcomes by acting as a pre-commitment device, which helps overcome a lack of self-control.
Maximizing profits in a crisis, such as a hardware store hiking shovel prices during a blizzard, ignores the powerful economic force of fairness. While rational by traditional models, such actions cause public outrage that can inflict far more long-term brand damage than the short-term profits are worth.
Richard Thaler realized he couldn't convince his established peers of behavioral economics' merits. Instead, he focused on 'corrupting the youth' by creating a summer camp for top graduate students and writing accessible journal articles. This new generation then populated top universities and changed the field from within.
After discovering the 'Winner's Curse' was causing them to overpay for oil leases, Arco engineers faced a problem: bidding less meant losing auctions. Instead of illegal collusion, they published a scientific paper on the phenomenon. This educated their competitors, reducing the likelihood of anyone overbidding and making the market more rational.
For decades, the math proved a 40% three-point shot was more valuable than a 50% two-point shot. Yet, the NBA was incredibly slow to adopt this strategy. This highlights how even high-stakes, data-rich industries can be slaves to tradition and status quo bias, ignoring obvious quantitative advantages.
People don't treat all money as fungible. They create mental buckets based on the money's origin—'windfall,' 'salary,' 'savings'—and spend from them differently. Money won in a bet feels easier to spend on luxuries than money from a paycheck, even though its value is identical.