The shift to a less adversarial China policy may be a strategic maneuver to avoid supply chain disruptions. The U.S. appears to be biding its time—likely for 5+ years—to wean itself off dependence on Chinese rare earth minerals, which are critical for both industry and defense manufacturing.

China's export ban on rare earth metals, critical for everything from iPhones to fighter jets, exposes a major US vulnerability. The solution is to treat domestic mining like vaccine development—a national security priority that requires fast-tracking the typical 30-year regulatory process for opening new mines.

To counter China's dominance in rare earths, subsidies and tax credits are not enough. The US must also use tools like the Defense Production Act to create long-term, guaranteed demand contracts. This provides stability for private companies to withstand the price volatility caused by Chinese market manipulation and dumping.

China's strategy involved not only extracting and processing rare earths but also creating domestic demand through EVs and wind turbines. This holistic approach, combined with state-owned enterprises that don't require profitability, created an unbeatable market position.

China achieved tech superpower status not through invention, but by mastering mass manufacturing and process knowledge. It allows the U.S. to create the initial spark (0-to-1), like solar PV, and then China creates the "prairie fire" by scaling it (1-to-N), ultimately dominating the industry.

While headlines focus on advanced chips, China’s real leverage comes from its strategic control over less glamorous but essential upstream inputs like rare earths and magnets. It has even banned the export of magnet-making technology, creating critical, hard-to-solve bottlenecks for Western manufacturing.

Facing China's export restrictions on rare earth metals, the U.S. immediate strategy is "ally-shoring": striking a major deal with Australia. This secures the supply chain through geopolitical partnerships as a faster, more pragmatic alternative to the long process of building domestic capacity from scratch.

America's vulnerability in the rare earths supply chain stems from internal failures, not a lack of domestic resources. A 29-year average for mining permits, cuts to research funding, and alienating allies have created a strategic dependency that could have been avoided.

When Japan cut off 90% of the U.S. rubber supply before WWII, America responded by rapidly scaling synthetic rubber technology. This historical success, a "Manhattan Project" for materials, serves as a powerful analogy and strategic model for tackling the current rare earth dependency.