Top AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic cannot unilaterally slow development, even with safety concerns. They fear that competitors or foreign adversaries would seize an insurmountable advantage, forcing them to seek government-led coordination to pace development safely.

The same governments pushing AI competition for a strategic edge may be forced into cooperation. As AI democratizes access to catastrophic weapons (CBRN), the national security risk will become so great that even rival superpowers will have a mutual incentive to create verifiable safety treaties.

One of the most promising and neglected AI safety strategies is to create systems for making credible deals with AIs. Just as contracts prevent conflict in human society, offering AIs guaranteed resources in exchange for cooperation makes rebellion a less attractive option.

Acknowledging their safety plans might be inadequate, leaders from multiple frontier labs have begun to seriously entertain a coordinated slowdown. This represents a major shift, as they also explore legal "safe harbors" to collaborate on safety without triggering antitrust violations, breaking the frame of the current race.

The "Pacing the Frontier" letter, where AI employees ask for government-mandated slowdowns, highlights a prisoner's dilemma. No single lab can afford to slow down due to "competitive pressure" unless all are forced to do so simultaneously through regulation. This coordination problem is why they appeal to an external authority.

Federal and state governments are massive customers of technology. Instead of relying solely on legislation, they can use their procurement power to enforce AI safety and ethical standards. By setting strict purchasing requirements, they can compel companies to build more responsible products.

Major AI companies are not solely seeking to stifle competition with regulation. They are also signaling an inability to self-regulate amidst intense competitive pressure, effectively asking external bodies to impose a mandatory safety floor that applies to everyone.

An FDA-style regulatory model would force AI companies to make a quantitative safety case for their models before deployment. This shifts the burden of proof from regulators to creators, creating powerful financial incentives for labs to invest heavily in safety research, much like pharmaceutical companies invest in clinical trials.

The credibility of AI labs like OpenAI and Anthropic warning about existential risk is damaged by their simultaneous, intense competition. Instead of feuding, a more impactful first step would be for them to collaborate on a joint safety and pacing proposal, demonstrating genuine commitment before passing the problem to governments.