The math used for training AI—minimizing the gap between an internal model and external reality—also governs economics. Successful economic agents (individuals, companies, societies) are those with the most accurate internal maps of reality, allowing them to better predict outcomes and persist over time.

To avoid AI hallucinations, Square's AI tools translate merchant queries into deterministic actions. For example, a query about sales on rainy days prompts the AI to write and execute real SQL code against a data warehouse, ensuring grounded, accurate results.

Speculation is often maligned as mere gambling, but it is a critical component for price discovery, liquidity, and risk transfer in any healthy financial market. Without speculators, markets would be inefficient. Prediction markets are an explicit tool to harness this power for accurate forecasting.

C-suites are more motivated to adopt AI for revenue-generating "front office" activities (like investment analysis) than for cost-saving "back office" automation. The direct, tangible impact on making more money overcomes the organizational inertia that often stalls efficiency-focused technology deployments.

As AI models are used for critical decisions in finance and law, black-box empirical testing will become insufficient. Mechanistic interpretability, which analyzes model weights to understand reasoning, is a bet that society and regulators will require explainable AI, making it a crucial future technology.

For the first time in years, leading-edge tech is incredibly expensive. This requires structured finance and massive capital, bringing Wall Street back to the table after being sidelined by cash-rich tech giants. The chaos and expense of AI create a new, lucrative playground for financiers.

Unlike deterministic SaaS software that works consistently, AI is probabilistic and doesn't work perfectly out of the box. Achieving 'human-grade' performance (e.g., 99.9% reliability) requires continuous tuning and expert guidance, countering the hype that AI is an immediate, hands-off solution.

A new technology's adoption depends on its fit with a profession's core tasks. Spreadsheets were an immediate revolution for accountants but a minor tool for lawyers. Similarly, generative AI is transformative for coders and marketers but struggles to find a daily use case in many other professions.

While many firms are just now reacting to AI's impact, major credit investors like KKR have been actively underwriting AI-driven business model risk for nearly six years. This proactive, long-term approach to assessing technological disruption is a core part of their due diligence process, not a recent development.