Japan is experiencing a historic capital rotation. After decades of a bond-centric, "play not to lose" mentality that favored an aging population, the country is shifting capital into equities and other risk assets. This is driving its stock market to new highs and reflects a fundamental need to finance new growth industries.

When national debt grows too large, an economy enters "fiscal dominance." The central bank loses its ability to manage the economy, as raising rates causes hyperinflation to cover debt payments while lowering them creates massive asset bubbles, leaving no good options.

Unlike past crises like 2008, the coming debt sustainability crisis will be different because the government's own balance sheet is the source of the instability. This means it will lack the capacity to bail out the market in the same way, fundamentally changing the nature of the crisis.

Despite recent concerns about private credit quality, the most rapid and substantial growth in debt since the GFC has occurred in the government sector. This makes the government bond market, not private credit, the most likely source of a future systemic crisis, especially in a rising rate environment.

Governments with massive debt cannot afford to keep interest rates high, as refinancing becomes prohibitively expensive. This forces central banks to lower rates and print money, even when it fuels asset bubbles. The only exits are an unprecedented productivity boom (like from AI) or a devastating economic collapse.

The seemingly obscure Japanese Government Bond (JGB) market holds a key catalyst for precious metals. A breakout in 10-year JGB yields above its 2% resistance could signal a serious sovereign debt issue, driving massive capital flight into gold.

Japan sustains a debt-to-GDP ratio that would cause collapse elsewhere due to its unique culture. Citizens patriotically buy and hold government debt, preventing the market panic that would typically ensue. This cultural factor allows it to delay an economic reckoning that seems inevitable by standard metrics.

The underlying math of U.S. debt is unsustainable, but the system holds together on pure confidence. The final collapse won't be a slow leak but a sudden 'pop'—an overnight freeze when investors collectively stop believing the government can honor its debts, a point which cannot be timed.

For 40 years, falling rates pushed 'safe' bond funds into increasingly risky assets to chase yield. With rates now rising, these mis-categorized portfolios are the most vulnerable part of the financial system. A crisis in credit or sovereign debt is more probable than a stock-market-led crash.