The ultimate impact of AI isn't just enhancing employee productivity via software. It's about companies transitioning from selling tools to selling outcomes. For example, an HR software provider could evolve to sell the automated work of an HR professional, handling payroll queries and benefits directly.

AI enables a fundamental shift in business models away from selling access (per seat) or usage (per token) towards selling results. For example, customer support AI will be priced per resolved ticket. This outcome-based model will become the standard as AI's capabilities for completing specific, measurable tasks improve.

Instead of selling software to traditional industries, a more defensible approach is to build vertically integrated companies. This involves acquiring or starting a business in a non-sexy industry (e.g., a law firm, hospital) and rebuilding its entire operational stack with AI at its core, something a pure software vendor cannot do.

The biggest threat to incumbent software companies isn't a new feature, but a business model shift. AI enables outcome-based pricing, which massively favors agile newcomers as incumbents struggle to adapt their entire commercial structure away from seat-based subscriptions.

The dominant long-term strategy isn't using AI to do the same work with fewer people (Efficiency AI). Winning companies will leverage AI to create new products, services, and capabilities, massively expanding their output and market presence (Opportunity AI).

AI makes it cheaper to build new features. Instead of passing these savings on through lower prices, companies should use this efficiency to expand their product's scope to solve adjacent customer problems. This bundling strategy increases the overall value proposition, allowing you to charge more and become more integral.

The current moment is ripe for building new horizontal software giants due to three converging paradigm shifts: a move to outcome-based pricing, AI completing end-to-end tasks as the new unit of value, and a shift from structured schemas to dynamic, unstructured data models.

AI tools aren't just making employees more efficient; they are replacing human labor. This allows software companies to move from cheap per-seat pricing to a new model based on outcomes, like charging per support ticket resolved, capturing a much larger share of the value.

The next major business model shift in software is from seat-based pricing to outcome-based pricing (e.g., paying per task completed). This favors AI-native newcomers, as incumbents will struggle to adapt their GTM and financial models.