Spirit's troubles highlight a broader market trend where budget-conscious consumers cut back while the wealthy splurge on luxury. This pattern, once confined to goods, is now evident in services like travel, signaling a potential risk for other budget-focused businesses and an opportunity for luxury brands.

The ratio of leading-to-coincident economic indicators is at historic lows seen only in deep recessions (1982, 2009). However, this may be skewed by the leading indicators' reliance on extremely negative consumer sentiment surveys. This divergence suggests we might be at the bottom of a cycle, not the beginning of a downturn.

A surge in highly speculative assets may not indicate a strong economy. It can be a sign that people feel so far behind financially that they're placing huge bets, believing in an "only up" market out of desperation rather than confidence.

As a highly volatile and retail-driven asset, Bitcoin serves as a leading indicator for investor risk appetite. It's a "canary in the coal mine" where a "risk on" sentiment leads to sharp increases, while a "risk off" mood triggers rapid declines, often preceding moves in traditional markets.

Contrary to theories that recent blow-ups like Tricolor indicate more fraud is coming, the real issue is broad economic stress. Using Warren Buffett's "tide goes out" analogy, higher rates and persistent inflation are exposing fundamental weaknesses and squeezing consumers across large, non-AI sectors of the economy.

Policies like reviewing tourists' social media, framed as security measures, have a chilling effect on international travel. This directly harms major economic engines like Las Vegas, which rely heavily on foreign visitors. The obsession with manufacturing overlooks the high-margin, easily damaged tourism sector.

The top 10% of earners, who drive 50% of consumer spending, can slash discretionary purchases overnight based on stock market fluctuations. This makes the economy more volatile than one supported by the stable, non-discretionary spending of the middle class, creating systemic fragility.

The dramatic rise in BNPL usage across all demographics, including 41% of young shoppers, is a negative forward-looking indicator. While framed as innovation, it's a form of modern usury that reveals consumers cannot afford their purchases, creating a significant, under-discussed credit risk for the economy.

The public sentiment towards minority groups, particularly historical scapegoats, can function as a canary in the coal mine for a nation's economic health. When fear and economic anxiety rise, society seeks a focus for its anger, making the "temperature on the Jews" a critical, if grim, socio-economic indicator.