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Startups rarely have the resources to educate a market or create a new wave. Success comes from identifying a market "earthquake"—a technological shift like ChatGPT that creates a sudden gap, levels the playing field against incumbents, and generates immediate budget and demand.
The rapid growth of AI products isn't due to a sudden market desire for AI technology itself. Rather, AI enables superior solutions for long-standing customer problems that were previously addressed with inadequate options. The demand existed long before the AI-powered supply arrived to meet it.
Product-market fit isn't about creating demand from scratch. It's about identifying a massive, existing wave of change (like cloud, mobile, or AI) and building a product (the "surfboard") to ride it. Success comes from correctly identifying and timing the wave, then making adjustments, not from paddling in calm water.
AI tools have radically lowered business creation barriers, enabling individuals to manage tasks that once required entire teams. This has opened a brief, powerful window of opportunity for lean, AI-native startups to outmaneuver larger incumbents before they fully adapt and integrate the same technologies.
During a fundamental technology shift like the current AI wave, traditional market size analysis is pointless because new markets and behaviors are being created. Investors should de-emphasize TAM and instead bet on founders who have a clear, convicted vision for how the world will change.
The pace of AI-driven innovation has accelerated so dramatically that marginal improvements are quickly rendered obsolete. Founders must pursue ideas that offer an order-of-magnitude change to their industry, as anything less will be overtaken by the next wave of technology.
AI tools drastically reduce the time and expertise needed to enter new domains. This allows startups to pivot their entire company quickly to capitalize on shifting investor sentiment and market narratives, making them more agile in a hype-driven environment where narrative alignment attracts capital.
To avoid being crushed by AI platform advancements, startups shouldn't compete directly with core models ('under the rock'). Instead, they should find a specific, underserved problem on the outer edge of what's newly possible, where deep user familiarity provides a defensible moat.
During a tech shift like AI, the biggest opportunity for startups isn't direct competition. It's identifying the space between two established players who are cautiously bolting AI onto legacy products. This "in-between" space allows a startup to define a new category without being benchmarked against a 20-year-old feature set.
A major market opportunity exists when one side of an industry (e.g., insurance companies) adopts new technology like AI faster than its counterpart (e.g., hospitals). Startups can succeed by building tools that close this technology gap, effectively 'arming the rebels' and leveling the playing field.
Market dynamics are not static. What was once a 'wave'—a new, urgent problem for everyone—can evolve into a series of 'dams' and eventually a stable 'river.' A common mistake is to build for the hype of a wave after it has crested, by which point it no longer provides the same opportunity for explosive growth.