Widespread anxiety from founders before OpenAI's Developer Day highlights a key challenge for AI startups. The fear is not a new competitor, but that the underlying platform (OpenAI) will launch a feature that completely absorbs their product's functionality, making their business obsolete overnight.

The notion of building a business as a 'thin wrapper' around a foundational model like GPT is flawed. Truly defensible AI products, like Cursor, build numerous specific, fine-tuned models to deeply understand a user's domain. This creates a data and performance moat that a generic model cannot easily replicate, much like Salesforce was more than just a 'thin wrapper' on a database.

Higgsfield initially saw high adoption for viral, consumer-facing AI features but pivoted. They realized foundation model players like OpenAI will dominate and subsidize these markets. The defensible startup strategy is to ignore consumer virality and solve specific, monetizable B2B workflow problems instead.

The assumption that startups can build on frontier model APIs is temporary. Emad Mostaque predicts that once models are sufficiently capable, labs like OpenAI will cease API access and use their superior internal models to outcompete businesses in every sector, fulfilling their AGI mission.

The fear that large AI labs will dominate all software is overblown. The competitive landscape will likely mirror Google's history: winning in some verticals (Maps, Email) while losing in others (Social, Chat). Victory will be determined by superior team execution within each specific product category, not by the sheer power of the underlying foundation model.

Counter to fears that foundation models will obsolete all apps, AI startups can build defensible businesses by embedding AI into unique workflows, owning the customer relationship, and creating network effects. This mirrors how top App Store apps succeeded despite Apple's platform dominance.

Successful vertical AI applications serve as a critical intermediary between powerful foundation models and specific industries like healthcare or legal. Their core value lies in being a "translation and transformation layer," adapting generic AI capabilities to solve nuanced, industry-specific problems for large enterprises.

With model improvements showing diminishing returns and competitors like Google achieving parity, OpenAI is shifting focus to enterprise applications. The strategic battleground is moving from foundational model superiority to practical, valuable productization for businesses.

The common critique of AI application companies as "GPT wrappers" with no moat is proving false. The best startups are evolving beyond using a single third-party model. They are using dozens of models and, crucially, are backward-integrating to build their own custom AI models optimized for their specific domain.