Contrary to early narratives, a proprietary dataset is not the primary moat for AI applications. True, lasting defensibility is built by deeply integrating into an industry's ecosystem—connecting different stakeholders, leveraging strategic partnerships, and using funding velocity to build the broadest product suite.
The durable investment opportunities in agentic AI tooling fall into three categories that will persist across model generations. These are: 1) connecting agents to data for better context, 2) orchestrating and coordinating parallel agents, and 3) providing observability and monitoring to debug inevitable failures.
Successful vertical AI applications serve as a critical intermediary between powerful foundation models and specific industries like healthcare or legal. Their core value lies in being a "translation and transformation layer," adapting generic AI capabilities to solve nuanced, industry-specific problems for large enterprises.
Redpoint's early-growth fund concentrates on Series B deals, entering after product-market fit is established but before explosive growth becomes apparent in the metrics. The strategy is to invest "a half step before something becomes obvious in the numbers," capturing value at a critical turning point.
While technical founders excel at finding an initial AI product wedge, domain-expert founders may be better positioned for long-term success. Their deep industry knowledge provides an intuitive roadmap for the company's "second act": expanding the product, aligning ecosystem incentives, and building defensibility beyond the initial tool.
Standardized AI benchmarks are saturated and becoming less relevant for real-world use cases. The true measure of a model's improvement is now found in custom, internal evaluations (evals) created by application-layer companies. Progress for a legal AI tool, for example, is a more meaningful indicator than a generic test score.
The venture capital benchmark for elite growth has shifted for AI companies. The old "T2D3" (Triple, Triple, Double, Double, Double) heuristic for SaaS is no longer the gold standard. Investors now consider achieving $100M ARR in under three years as the strongest signal of exceptional product-market fit in AI.
While US firms lead in cutting-edge AI, the impressive quality of open-source models from China is compressing the market. As these free models improve, more tasks become "good enough" for open source, creating significant pricing pressure on premium, closed-source foundation models from companies like OpenAI and Google.