Applying the machine learning concept of a "learning rate" to human cognition suggests that when a core assumption is proven wrong by a single counterexample, one should radically increase their learning rate and question all related beliefs, rather than making a small, incremental update.

Related Insights

Regularly re-evaluate your investment theses. Stubbornly holding onto an initial belief despite new, contradictory information can lead to significant losses. This framework encourages adaptation by forcing you to re-earn your conviction at regular intervals, preventing belief calcification.

True scientific progress comes from being proven wrong. When an experiment falsifies a prediction, it definitively rules out a potential model of reality, thereby advancing knowledge. This mindset encourages researchers to embrace incorrect hypotheses as learning opportunities rather than failures, getting them closer to understanding the world.

The strength of scientific progress comes from 'individual humility'—the constant process of questioning assumptions and actively searching for errors. This embrace of being wrong, or doubting one's own work, is not a weakness but a superpower that leads to breakthroughs.

Marketplaces are chaotic, recursive systems. Running A/B tests often reveals unexpected second-order effects that invalidate strong hypotheses. This process forces 'epistemic modesty' by teaching operators the limits of their own knowledge and the necessity of experimentation.

Intelligence is a rate, not a static quality. You can outperform someone who learns in fewer repetitions by simply executing your own (potentially more numerous) repetitions on a faster timeline. Compressing the time between attempts is a controllable way to become 'smarter' on a practical basis.

Children are more rational Bayesians than scientists because they lack strong pre-existing beliefs (priors). This makes them more open to updating their views based on new, even unusual, evidence. Scientists' extensive experience makes them rationally stubborn, requiring more evidence to change their minds.

The real measure of learning is not how much information you can recall, but whether that information has led to a tangible change in your actions and habits. Without behavioral change, you haven't truly learned anything.

To counteract the brain's tendency to preserve existing conclusions, Charles Darwin deliberately considered evidence that contradicted his hypotheses. He was most rigorous when he felt most confident in an idea—a powerful, counterintuitive method for maintaining objectivity and avoiding confirmation bias.

Beyond the mid-20s, the primary mechanism for rewiring the brain (neuroplasticity) is making a prediction and realizing it was wrong. This makes mistakes a biological necessity for growth and becoming more capable. It reframes errors not just as learning opportunities, but as the central, physiological catalyst for adult learning and improvement.

If a highly successful person repeatedly makes decisions that seem crazy but consistently work, don't dismiss them. Instead, assume their model of reality is superior to yours in a key way. Your goal should be to infer what knowledge they possess that you don't.