Unlike the monolithic semiconductor industry, quantum computing encompasses varied approaches like superconducting, atomic, and photonic systems. Each has a distinct, partially overlapping supply chain, making a unified industrial policy incredibly difficult to formulate and execute.

While the race for quantum computing hardware is underway, a major blind spot is the software. Quantum software doesn't exist yet, and current software giants are not prepared. The U.S. needs a strategic public-private effort to build this ecosystem from scratch to capitalize on future hardware breakthroughs.

The emergence of high-quality open-source models from China drastically shortens the innovation window of closed-source leaders. This competition is healthy for startups, providing them with a broader array of cheaper, powerful models to build on and preventing a single company from becoming a chokepoint.

China's heavy investment in quantum component manufacturing, like photonic integrated circuits (PICs), allows its researchers to go from idea to physical prototype in just two weeks. In the US, the same process can take 12-18 months, giving China a massive advantage in iteration speed and adaptability.

To accelerate progress and maintain a competitive lead over China, John Martinis's new company is partnering with Applied Materials. They are leveraging modern, 300mm semiconductor fabrication tools—which are restricted from China—to build next-generation quantum devices with higher quality and scalability.

With ~90 hardware firms pursuing varied, competing qubit modalities, quantum is analogous to biotech's diverse approaches to curing a disease. This differs sharply from the consolidated, single-paradigm semiconductor industry and requires a different mindset for investment and policy.

The supply chain for today's quantum prototypes is globally distributed. The true geopolitical prize is to control the future, at-scale manufacturing ecosystem for fault-tolerant quantum computers—an arena where no nation currently has a decisive advantage.

While the US focuses intensely on foundational AI models, China pursues a broader portfolio approach. Beijing prioritizes the practical deployment of AI in manufacturing alongside major investments in robotics and green technology to build comprehensive industrial capacity.

Similar to biotech, startups are the primary drivers of disruptive innovation in quantum. The 'neutral atoms' modality, once dismissed as science fiction, was championed by startups and is now a leading contender, forcing incumbents like Google to invest heavily to hedge against their established approaches.