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Contrary to expectations of a closed system, authoritarian China has taken the lead in developing the world's best open-source AI models. This may be a deliberate strategy to accelerate its progress by attracting a global community of developers to build on its platforms.

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Chinese AI models are largely open source not for ideological reasons, but as a pragmatic branding strategy. Open-sourcing their models was necessary to build trust and credibility with Western developers who might otherwise be skeptical of closed, proprietary Chinese technology.

According to Together AI's CEO, China's leadership in open-source AI is a function of market structure, not a philosophical preference. The market is organized around open models, with companies competing by building APIs and applications on top, creating a different game-theoretic equilibrium than the closed-model US market.

Unlike the largely closed-source US market, DeepSeek's open-source models spurred intense competition among Chinese tech giants and startups to release their own open offerings. This has made Chinese open-source models the most used globally by token count, creating a distinct competitive dynamic.

Counterintuitively, China leads in open-source AI models as a deliberate strategy. This approach allows them to attract global developer talent to accelerate their progress. It also serves to commoditize software, which complements their national strength in hardware manufacturing, a classic competitive tactic.

Unable to compete globally on inference-as-a-service due to US chip sanctions, China has pivoted to releasing top-tier open-source models. This serves as a powerful soft power play, appealing to other nations and building a technological sphere of influence independent of the US.

The performance gap between US and Chinese AI has closed, establishing them as co-leaders. A key divergence is China's embrace of open models, while major US players have shifted to closed, proprietary systems. This creates a significant geopolitical and technological divide in the global AI ecosystem.

China isn't giving away its AI models out of generosity. By making them open source, it encourages widespread adoption and dependency. Once users are locked into the ecosystem, China can monetize it, introduce ads, or simply lock down future, more advanced versions, giving it significant strategic leverage.

While the U.S. leads in closed, proprietary AI models like OpenAI's, Chinese companies now dominate the leaderboards for open-source models. Because they are cheaper and easier to deploy, these Chinese models are seeing rapid global uptake, challenging the U.S.'s perceived lead in AI through wider diffusion and application.

Chinese AI labs are following a playbook perfected by OpenAI. They initially release open-source models to attract developers and accelerate learning. Once they approach the performance of frontier models, they switch to a closed-source strategy to monetize and capture the value.

After Western interest in funding large open-source models waned due to high costs, Chinese companies adopted the strategy. They used open-source releases to quickly elevate their company profiles and establish themselves as top-tier players on the global stage.

China Is Paradoxically Winning the Open-Source AI Race | RiffOn