The performance gap between US and Chinese AI models may be widening due to second-order effects of chip controls. By limiting inference at scale, the controls reduce the volume of customer interactions and feedback Chinese firms receive. This starves them of the data needed to identify and patch model weaknesses on diverse, real-world tasks.

Facing semiconductor shortages, China is pursuing a unique AI development path. Instead of competing directly on compute power, its strategy leverages national strengths in vast data sets, a large talent pool, and significant power infrastructure to drive AI progress and a medium-term localization strategy.

Based on experience with BeiGene's board, the CEO identifies the speed of implementing ideas and running multiple experiments in parallel as a major strength of Chinese biotech. This, combined with a vast pool of scientific talent, positions China as a formidable force in global innovation.

Dan Wong argues that the West wrongly separates 'innovation' (its domain) from 'scaling' (China's domain). Chinese workers innovate daily on factory floors, giving them a practical edge. For instance, Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory workers are over twice as productive as their California counterparts due to superior automation and process improvements.

While China's top-down mandates for AI seem formidable, they create a creativity gap, reflected in high youth unemployment. The American system, which allows for creating 'silly' consumer apps, fosters a culture of innovation that is a key long-term advantage in the global tech race.

China's superior ability to rapidly build energy infrastructure and data centers means it could have outpaced US firms in building massive AI training facilities. Export controls are the primary reason Chinese hyperscalers haven't matched the massive capital spending of their US counterparts.

For entire countries or industries, aggregate compute power is the primary constraint on AI progress. However, for individual organizations, success hinges not on having the most capital for compute, but on the strategic wisdom to select the right research bets and build a culture that sustains them.

China is compensating for its deficit in cutting-edge semiconductors by pursuing an asymmetric strategy. It focuses on massive 'superclusters' of less advanced domestic chips and creating hyper-efficient, open-source AI models. This approach prioritizes widespread, low-cost adoption over chasing the absolute peak of performance like the US.

The US-China AI race is a 'game of inches.' While America leads in conceptual breakthroughs, China excels at rapid implementation and scaling. This dynamic reduces any American advantage to a matter of months, requiring constant, fast-paced innovation to maintain leadership.