The National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) creates an "AI Futures Steering Committee" co-chaired by top defense officials. Its explicit purpose is to formulate policy for evaluating, adopting, and mitigating risks of AGI, and to forecast adversary AGI capabilities.
The insurance industry acts as a powerful de facto regulator. As major insurers seek to exclude AI-related liabilities from policies, they could dramatically slow AI deployment because businesses will be unwilling to shoulder the unmitigated financial risk themselves.
Insurers can price a single large loss. What they cannot price is a single AI model, deployed by thousands of customers, having a flaw that leads to thousands of simultaneous claims. This "systemic, correlated" risk could bankrupt an insurer.
Without clear government standards for AI safety, there is no "safe harbor" from lawsuits. This makes it likely courts will apply strict liability, where a company is at fault even if not negligent. This legal uncertainty makes risk unquantifiable for insurers, forcing them to exit the market.
The Manhattan Project and Apollo Program had clear, measurable success criteria. The Genesis Mission's goal to double scientific productivity is abstract and hard to measure, making it difficult to define success, rally support, and maintain focus in the same way.
If China allows H200 imports, it signals that tech giants like Alibaba need advanced chips now. If they ban them, it shows the government is prioritizing the long-term, self-sufficiency goals of domestic chipmakers like Huawei over short-term gains.
Allowing H200 chip sales gives China significant AI compute capability. This short-term revenue boost for NVIDIA won't alter China's long-term policy of reducing reliance on foreign tech, effectively helping a competitor in a strategic race.
While NVIDIA laments lost revenue from export controls, those same policies blocked its primary Chinese competitor, Huawei, from accessing TSMC's advanced manufacturing. This prevented Huawei from launching a competing 7nm GPU, preserving NVIDIA's market dominance in China.
China's superior ability to rapidly build energy infrastructure and data centers means it could have outpaced US firms in building massive AI training facilities. Export controls are the primary reason Chinese hyperscalers haven't matched the massive capital spending of their US counterparts.