For years, flat-rate AI subscriptions heavily subsidized power users, masking the true cost of token consumption. As providers shift to usage-based billing, this subsidy is ending. Enterprises now face "sticker shock" and must justify AI spend with clear ROI, moving from rampant experimentation to cost-conscious implementation.

AI agent spending won't be confined to limited IT budgets. Instead, it will draw from massive line-of-business operating budgets (OpEx), pitched as augmenting core workflows. This shift could realistically double enterprise technology spend.

The jump to capable AI agents has shifted enterprise cost structures. AI is no longer a predictable per-seat software license but a variable consumption cost, akin to labor. This explains why companies are suddenly "torching" their budgets—they were budgeting for tools, not autonomous workers.

As more companies integrate AI, their costs are tied to variable usage (e.g., tokens, inference). This is causing a profound, economy-wide transformation away from predictable seat-based subscriptions towards more dynamic usage-based models to align costs with revenue.

Traditional software budgeting fails for generative AI, where costs are variable and tied to tokens and usage. A CFO noted a team's daily per-person cost jumped 50% in one week. Companies must accept this volatility, run pilots to establish baseline costs, and then determine ROI, rather than trying to set a fixed budget upfront.

An anecdote about an engineer spending $100M in a month on AI tokens reveals a core enterprise issue. For Lenovo's CFO, the problem isn't the amount but its lack of planning and clear ROI. This signals a shift from predictable software subscriptions to volatile, usage-based AI compute costs.

While early generative AI costs were negligible, the shift to complex, multi-step agentic workflows is causing a massive spike in token usage. This has elevated cost optimization and ROI from a minor concern to a C-suite priority for the first time.

The move from pre-agentic to agentic AI workloads consumes massive resources. This has ended the 'AI subsidy era,' forcing companies like Walmart and Uber to implement usage-based models and strict caps on AI spending to control runaway costs and enforce discipline.

Goldman's CIO predicts that while unit cost per token will decrease, the explosion in token usage from agentic systems will make total AI compute a major corporate expense. He suggests it should be compared to personnel costs, not traditional IT spending.