Instead of only celebrating wins and analyzing losses, Apollo's leadership instituted "near-miss reviews." They analyze successful investments that could have gone wrong "but for the skin of our teeth." This process uncovers hidden risks and flawed assumptions, strengthening the firm's underwriting for future deals.
Apollo's foundational private equity strategy—seeking value, being contrarian, and investing flexibly across the capital structure—was not siloed. This single philosophy of maximizing return per unit of risk now guides every investment decision across their entire platform, including credit and insurance.
An investor's best career P&L winners are not immediate yeses. They often involve an initial pass by either the investor or the company. This shows that timing and building relationships over multiple rounds can be more crucial than a single early-stage decision, as a 'missed round' isn't a 'missed company'.
Bessemer Venture Partners publicly lists massive companies it passed on to foster a learning culture. This highlights their philosophy that the opportunity cost of missing a transformative company (a crime of omission) is far more damaging than investing in one that fails (a crime of commission).
Ken Griffin argues businesses over-analyze failures. Instead, they should dissect successes to understand the "flywheel" that drives growth. Identifying what you did right in a sales process, for example, is more valuable for creating repeatable wins than dwelling on rejections.
A crucial, yet unquantifiable, component of alpha is avoiding catastrophic losses. Jeff Aronson points to spending years analyzing companies his firm ultimately passed on. While this discipline doesn't appear as a positive return on a performance sheet, the act of rigorously saying "no" is a real, though invisible, driver of long-term success.
Instead of stigmatizing failure, LEGO embeds a formal "After Action Review" (AAR) process into its culture, with reviews happening daily at some level. This structured debrief forces teams to analyze why a project failed and apply those specific learnings across the organization to prevent repeat mistakes.
The most critical decision in venture isn't the final investment vote but the mid-funnel choice of which companies get a deep look. The costliest errors are false negatives—great companies dismissed prematurely. Firms should therefore optimize process hygiene at this stage, implementing mandatory post-meeting debriefs to avoid these misses.
Companies that consistently avoid dissecting failures, like lost deals, demonstrate a cultural aversion to learning. They prefer chasing new opportunities over improving. For employees in such an environment, this systemic refusal to learn is a major red flag indicating limited growth and a need to seek opportunities elsewhere.
Instead of an immediate post-close review, conduct retrospectives 6-12 months later. The true quality of due diligence and strategic fit can only be assessed after operating the business for a period. This delay provides deeper insights into what was missed or correctly identified, leading to more meaningful process improvements.
Beyond analyzing losing positions (errors of commission), the speaker emphasizes studying mistakes of omission—high-quality businesses he understood but failed to invest in. This reflective practice helps identify flaws in process, time management, or conviction, which can be more instructive for future success than reviewing simple losses.