By building a feature that competes directly with startups using its own API, Anthropic demonstrates the "platform risk" inherent in the AI ecosystem. Like Amazon with its Basics line, foundation model companies can observe usage, identify valuable applications, and integrate them, creating a kill-zone for dependent companies.

Building a business entirely on a closed-source API from a major provider like Anthropic or OpenAI is precarious. These platform companies can and do release new capabilities that directly compete with and subsume the functionalities of startups in their ecosystem, effectively erasing their business overnight.

Startups building on OpenAI or Anthropic APIs face a major platform risk. Their usage data trains the underlying foundational models, enabling the platform owners to eventually absorb their features natively and make the startups obsolete.

Data reveals an extreme power law where model labs OpenAI and Anthropic capture nearly all AI startup revenue, and their share is growing. This indicates value is accruing to the foundational layer, posing an existential threat to the long-term viability of application-focused startups.

Anthropic is moving up the stack from model provider to application developer, putting it in direct competition with its own customers like Figma and Canva. It allegedly downplayed the capabilities of its new design tool to partners before launch, leading to broken trust and strategic fallout.

An Anthropic executive's departure from Figma's board highlights a growing tension. As foundational model companies build application-specific tools (like a design tool), they create direct competition with their own ecosystem partners, forcing board members to choose sides to avoid conflicts of interest.

Gurley notes that major AI model providers like OpenAI and Anthropic are shifting from solely selling API access to building their own applications. This move up the stack signals a fear that being a pure model provider is not a defensible moat and could lead to commoditization.

Startups are becoming wary of building on OpenAI's platform due to the significant risk of OpenAI launching competing applications (e.g., Sora for video), rendering their products obsolete. This "platform risk" is pushing developers toward neutral providers like Anthropic or open-source models to protect their businesses.

Startups building on top of AI models, like coding assistant Cursor, are extremely vulnerable. As foundation model companies like Anthropic improve their own native capabilities (e.g., Claude Code), they can quickly capture the market and render specialized tools obsolete.