While 2025 saw major advancements for robots in commercial settings like autonomous driving (Waymo) and logistics (Amazon), consumer-facing humanoid robots remain impractical. They lack the fine motor skills and dexterity required for complex household chores, failing the metaphorical "laundry test."

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David Chang predicts the initial wave of kitchen automation will not replace chefs but will handle simple, binary tasks like operating a deep fryer (up and down) or cleaning bathrooms. He points out that advanced dishwashers capable of handling expensive stemware are already sophisticated robots. The focus will be on eliminating repetitive physical movements before tackling complex, dexterous cooking.

The humanoid form factor presents significant safety hazards in a home, such as a heavy robot becoming a “ballistic missile” if it falls down stairs. Simpler, specialized, low-mass designs are far more cost-effective and safer for domestic environments.

A user speculates on a future where you could buy a humanoid robot, get hired by the robot's manufacturer as a remote operator, and then get paid (with benefits) to teleoperate your own robot to do chores in your own house. This highlights a potential, albeit absurd, evolution of labor markets.

While consumer robots are flashy, the real robotics revolution will start in manufacturing. Specialized B2B robots offer immediate, massive ROI for companies that can afford them. The winner will be the company that addresses factories first and then adapts that technology for the home, not the other way around.

Leading robotics companies are taking different paths to market. Boston Dynamics targets industrial use cases (e.g., DHL, BP). In contrast, both Figure AI and 1X are now focused on the home, but 1X is moving more aggressively by accepting consumer pre-orders first.

The current excitement for consumer humanoid robots mirrors the premature hype cycle of VR in the early 2010s. Robotics experts argue that practical, revenue-generating applications are not in the home but in specific industrial settings like warehouses and factories, where the technology is already commercially viable.

The robotics field has a scalable recipe for AI-driven manipulation (like GPT), but hasn't yet scaled it into a polished, mass-market consumer product (like ChatGPT). The current phase focuses on scaling data and refining systems, not just fundamental algorithm discovery, to bridge this gap.

The founder of robotics OS Lightberry argues that the industry's "ChatGPT moment" won't be when a robot can fold laundry. Instead, it will be when robots are commonly seen interacting with people in public roles—as shop assistants, event staff, or security—achieving social acceptance first.

Self-driving cars, a 20-year journey so far, are relatively simple robots: metal boxes on 2D surfaces designed *not* to touch things. General-purpose robots operate in complex 3D environments with the primary goal of *touching* and manipulating objects. This highlights the immense, often underestimated, physical and algorithmic challenges facing robotics.

Contrary to public perception that advanced home robotics are decades away, insiders see tasks like cooking a steak as achievable in under five years. This timeline is based on behind-the-scenes progress at top robotics companies that isn't yet widely visible.